000 AXNT20 KNHC 250953 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from 00N to 09N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. While the tropical wave amplitude has waned over the last few days, a recent scatterometer pass confirmed cyclonic winds at the surface. No convection is present at this time with this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along near 75W from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is producing scattered thunderstorms over northern Colombia, however no significant convection is observed over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 00N35W. The ITCZ continues from 00N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-10N and E of 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between the high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh return flow across the basin. Fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail west of 92W, while moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail east of 92W. Instability across the Gulf is causing scattered moderate convection E of 88W and N of 25N. For the forecast, fresh southerly return flow will prevail today across the basin as the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico tightens. Winds will pulse to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf tonight and weaken as it reaches the NE Gulf on Fri. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently moving across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate high pressure in the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the basin. An area of strong winds is noted in the Gulf of Honduras currently, but it will weaken during the day. Recent altimeter data is suggesting 4-7 ft seas across the basin with an area of 6-8 ft likely in the Colombian Basin. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to strong north of Honduras once again tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently moving across the eastern Atlantic. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N74W, leading to fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Winds are mainly light to gentle with moderate E-SE winds from the Windward Passage, across the Bahamas and along the coast of Florida. In the central Atlantic, a recent scatterometer pass found moderate to fresh southerlies N of 27N from 35W to 55W. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted N of 25N and E of 45W. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Sea heights are moderate or lower throughout the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will remain nearly stationary through tonight while weakening. The high pressure will shift eastward through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas. $$ ERA