000 AXNT20 KNHC 250301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 00N to 08N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. While the tropical wave amplitude has waned over the last few days, a recent scatterometer pass confirmed cyclonic winds at the surface. Associated convection remains weak and is detailed in the monsoon trough section below. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is producing strong thunderstorms over northern Colombia, however no significant convection is observed over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 00N35W. The ITCZ continues from 00N35W to 00N50W. Isolated weak convection covers the majority of the area from the equator to 07N between 10W and 40W, with an embedded area of scattered moderate convection from 01N to 05N between 15W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 07N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh return flow across the basin. Fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail west of 90W, while moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail east of 90W. Instability across the Gulf is causing scattered moderate convection east of 90W and north of 27N. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow will prevail tonight in the far western Gulf as the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico tightens. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed evening. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail elsewhere through Wed with moderate seas. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed night and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate high pressure in the western Atlantic is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades across the basin. An area of strong winds are likely in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Recent altimeter data is suggesting 4-6 ft seas across the basin with areas of 6-8 ft likely in the Gulf of Honduras and the Colombian Basin. A few isolated weak showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the basin, concentrated mainly in the western half. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to strong north of Honduras tonight and Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night starting tonight and continue through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 30N74W, leading to fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Winds are mainly light to gentle with moderate E-SE winds from the Windward Passage, across the Bahamas and along the coast of Florida. In the central Atlantic, a recent scatterometer pass found moderate to fresh southerlies north of 27N from 35W to 55W. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally strong winds are observed north of 21N and east of 25W. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Sea heights are moderate or lower throughout the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridge extending from near Bermuda to northern Florida will remain nearly stationary through Wed night while weakening. The high pressure will shift eastward through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds from north of Hispaniola and the Bahamas. $$ Flynn