000 AXNT20 KNHC 241633 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue May 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 02N to 10N, moving W at 10 kt. This feature remains poorly organized and drier Saharan air is limiting shower or thunderstorm activity especially on the northern half of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the southern half from 00N to 05N between 29W-31W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 14N southward, moving westward 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are near the trough axis over Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela, while no significant weather is occurring over water. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Liberia coast near 06N11W to 02N24W to 01N36W. The ITCZ continues from 01N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N-08N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-04N between 21W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A sharp mid to upper trough is supporting this area of weather, interacting with a surface trough analyzed off the Texas coast. A 1010 mb surface low is analyzed near 27N96W off the coast of Corpus Christi, TX with a trough extending south of the low to 24N97W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted across the NW Gulf from 24N-30N and W of 92W. Some of these storms are considered severe, with frequent lightning and gusts to gale force possible. Please see the local NWS Texas offices for more information on any special marine warnings being issued near the coast. Another trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf from 25N88W to 30N85W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the eastern Gulf W of 88W. A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic into the northeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting mainly moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas across the Gulf, except for fresh to strong SE winds off the South Texas/northeast Mexico coast. Seas across the Gulf range 3-5 ft with higher waves near the strongest convective activity in the NW Gulf. For the forecast, the trough and the convective activity in the NW Gulf will weaken by late this afternoon over the area. Fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected again tonight in the far western Gulf as the gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico tightens. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and Wed evening. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail elsewhere through Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Wed night and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... There is a mid-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula with a surface trough extending across the Gulf of Honduras, from the northern Yucatan coast southward to northern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW basin along the monsoon trough, S of 14N and W of 77W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted across the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms are observed off the western Cuba coast and in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range 3-5 ft across most of the basin with upwards of 9 ft north of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to fresh to strong north of Honduras tonight through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night starting tonight and lasting through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N73W, leading to fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the northern coast of the Dominican Republic with isolated thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center with 3-5 ft seas. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas to South Florida, including the Straits of Florida. A weak 1015 mb surface low analyzed near 28N63W is generating an area of moderate cyclonic flow. In the central Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N42W to 31N56W. A trough extends from 31N48W to 28N55W. Moderate to fresh SE winds continue on the east side of the dying front, N of 28N and W of 39W. Seas range 5-7 ft with a component of N swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, winds are mainly gentle to moderate with fresh NE winds near the Canary Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft E of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure extending from near Bermuda to Georgia will remain nearly stationary through Wed night while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas. $$ AReinhart