076 AXNT20 KNHC 231715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 11N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This feature remains poorly organized and drier air associated with Saharan dust is preventing any shower or thunderstorm north of 03N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis from 01N-03N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 13.5N southward, moving westward 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are occurring along and east of the wave axis, extending to the southern Windward Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09.5N13.5W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to 01N43W to 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-07N between 05W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 01N-5.5N between 29W- 36W and from 00N-08N between 40W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad mid to upper-level troughing is over the central to western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a warm front extends from Vermilion Bay, Louisiana to Corpus Christi, Texas. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh NE winds to the north of the warm front. A surface trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and southeast of the surface trough, north of 28N between 85.5W and 91W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence in the area. Another surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 26N91.5W to 21.5N95W. Scattered moderate convection is west of the trough from 22N-24N between 95W-97.5W. Moderate S winds are likely occurring east of this surface trough. Moderate to locally fresh ESE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft across much of the SW and west-central Gulf. Buoy 42055 near 22.1N 93.9W recently reported seas of 7 ft. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin. Areas of haze have been affecting some of the SW Gulf, with visibilities of 3 to 5 miles. For the forecast, the warm front will move northwest of the area through tonight. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds Tue and Wed with moderate seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf Thu and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for a description of convection affecting the SE Caribbean Sea. Mid to upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean between 70W-80W, while mid to upper-level troughing is farther west, over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence in between these two features is enhancing scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean from 16N-22N between 73W-89W. Scattered showers are also noted farther south, along the coast of Nicaragua and just north of western Panama. The latest ASCAT satellite data shows strong E trades over the south- central Caribbean, south of 16N between 70W-77W. An altimeter pass from 23/1030 UTC this morning shows seas of 10-11 ft off the coast of Colombia from 11N-14N between 74W-76W. Seas of 7-11 ft likely extend from 10N-17N between 70W-81W. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-6 ft are likely occurring. Mainly moderate winds are over the E Caribbean and NW Caribbean to the north of 18N. Seas are 3-5 ft over these moderate wind areas. There is still enough low level moisture and convergence to support clusters of heavy rainfall during the next few days across portions of Costa Rica and western Panama, and also SW Guatemala and the Mexican state of Chiapas, close to the Pacific coast. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological agency for more information concerning rainfall in these areas. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish starting today as the pressure gradient across the area weakens. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 30N72W, leading to fairly benign weather across most of the western Atlantic. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure center. Farther south, fresh ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas to South Florida, as well as in the Straits of Florida. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N44W to 25N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of the front, from 27N-31N between 39W-45W. Moderate to locally fresh S winds are located within this convective area. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure near 34N30W and a 1019 mb high pressure near 20N48W. Generally gentle to moderate winds cover most of the Atlantic east of 60W. Seas are likely 5-8 ft north of 27N between 38W-60W. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from near Bermuda to the Carolinas will remain nearly stationary through Tue while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure will shift eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, then subside into Wed. For the forecast east of 55W, northerly winds off the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir, will increase to near gale force by midday Tue. Winds there will diminish Wed night. $$ Hagen