547 AXNT20 KNHC 151757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just to the east of the Windward Islands with axis south of 15N and along 60W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a unfavorable wind shear environment, however shallow moisture is supporting scattered to isolated showers near Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago. Winds associated with this wave are in the 15-20 kt range with seas to 7 ft as indicated by recent altimeter data. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Heavy showers and tstms are off the coast of Liberia, Africa from 02N to 07N between 06W and 14W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02S to 05N W of 29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the NE Gulf of Mexico and shallow moisture continue to support and area of scattered showers and tstms as indicated by GLM data. A surface trough coincides with that region of showers, which extends from the Florida Big Bend to 26N87W. The remainder basin is under the influence of weak high pressure anchored by a 1016 mb high centered near 26N92W, which is providing light to gentle variable winds. Recent altimeter data show seas in the 2 to 4 ft range basin-wide while both infrared and microwave satellite data show a very dry envronment, which is supporting fair weather. Otherwise, ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of slight to moderate haze mainly in the southwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through midweek. Fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night. Fresh southeast return flow is expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Wed night due to a tighter pressure gradient over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers and tsms prevail over portions of the central and western Caribbean between 75W and 85W associated with a surface trough south of 21N and axis along 82W. The convection is also being supported by abundant moisture and middle- to upper-level diffluent flow just to the east of a trough aloft. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds behind this wave over the SW Caribbean where seas are in the 7 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Over the far NW Caribbean, winds are variable and light to gentle with seas to 2 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will support fresh to strong trades across the southern eastern and central Caribbean tonight. Thereafter, moderate trade winds will prevail across the basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over the southern portion mainly N of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave along 60W will approach the Windward Islands this afternoon and move across the eastern Caribbean from tonight through Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of the Bermuda High, which is anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N58W. This continues to support mainly moderate to fresh return flow SW of the high between 55W and 75W with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Over the Florida seaboard winds are light to gentle and variable with seas to 2 ft. To the NE of the Bahamas, between 67W and 76W, middle to upper level moisture streaming from the SW Caribbean support an elongated area of scattered showers and tstms with recent scatterometer data indicating gusty winds. Aside from that, in the north-central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N30W to 28N44W, however, there is no shower activity associated with it. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the area will change little through Mon. The high will shift eastward as a cold front approaches the waters off northeast Florida on Tue. The northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area on Wed, while its remainder becomes stationary over the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the front. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon night. $$ Ramos