000
AXNT20 KNHC 151733
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just to the east of the Windward Islands with
axis south of 15N and along 60W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is
in a unfavorable wind shear environment, however shallow moisture
is supporting scattered to isolated showers near Barbados and
Trinidad and Tobago. Winds associated with this wave are in the
15-20 kt range with seas to 7 ft as indicated by recent altimeter
data. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N18W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 03N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Heavy showers and tstms are
off the coast of Liberia, Africa from 02N to 07N between 06W and
14W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02S to 05N W
of 29W. 
 
GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level short-wave trough over the NE Gulf of
Mexico and shallow moisture continue to support and area of
scattered showers and tstms as indicated by GLM data. A surface
trough coincides with that region of showers, which extends from
the Florida Big Bend to 26N87W. The remainder basin is under the
influence of weak high pressure anchored by a 1016 mb high
centered near 26N92W, which is providing light to gentle variable
winds. Recent altimeter data show seas in the 2 to 4 ft range
basin-wide while both infrared and microwave satellite data show 
a very dry envronment, which is supporting fair weather. Otherwise,
ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of 
slight to moderate haze mainly in the southwestern sections of 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will continue to 
produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through midweek. 
Fresh northeast winds will pulse west of the Yucatan peninsula 
each night through Wed night. Fresh southeast return flow is 
expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Wed night 
due to a tighter pressure gradient over the western Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...




For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and 
central Caribbean through tonight. Thereafter, moderate trade 
winds will prevail across the basin, except for pulsing fresh to 
strong easterly winds over the southern portion mainly N of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave along 60W 
will approach the Windward Islands this afternoon and move across 
the eastern Caribbean from tonight through Tue. Moisture 
accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for 
showers in the eastern Caribbean through midweek. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...




For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the area will 
change little through Mon. The high will shift eastward as a cold 
front approaches the waters off northeast Florida on Tue. The 
northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast
part of the area on Wed, while its remainder becomes stationary 
over the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest 
winds will precede the front. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong 
east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will 
persist through Mon night.

$$
Ramos