763 AXNT20 KNHC 151046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 589 from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery depicts what appears to be a mid-level cyclonic circulation near 08N58W. No significant convection is noted with this feature, or near the wave. The imagery shows broken to overcast low and mid level clouds, with possible scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 06N to 13N between 53W-60W. Scattered to broken mostly low and mid-level clouds, with isolated showers trail the wave from 06N to 12N between 44W-53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 06N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that its transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N29W and to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the NW Gulf near 27N92W. Its associated anticyclonic wind flow consists of gentle speeds, with the exception of moderate northeast to east winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche, and gentle to moderate south- southwest winds near the central and southern sections of the Texas coast and also near the northeastern Mexico coast. A north- to- south oriented surface trough is in Florida from the Florida Keys to northeastern Florida. Ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of slight to moderate haze in the western and southwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Latest altimeter data along with current and recent buoy observations reveal wave heights of 3-4 ft west of 92W, and 1-3 ft east of 92W. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through Wed. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds Mon night. Fresh southeast to south return flow is expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Wed night due to a tighter pressure gradient in the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad deep-layer troughing is present west of 80W. At the surface, a trough extends from western Cuba near 23N82W, south- southwest to 19N83W and south to 13N82W. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough protrudes into the far southwestern Caribbean from the border between Costa Rica and Panama, east to northwest Colombia near 10N75W. Upper- level divergence combining with low-level convergence is helping to sustain recently developed scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean from 10N-15N and between 78W-81W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere between 75W and the surface trough. Isolated showers, moving westward in the trade wind flow, are over the central Caribbean north of 12N between 69W-75W and over the eastern Caribbean north of 14N east of 69W. Overnight ASCAT data passes reveal fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean south of 15N between 68W-74W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trade winds are elsewhere east of 80W. Light to gentle winds under a weak pressure pattern are west of 80W. Wave heights range of 6-9 ft are over the waters between 72W-79W, wave heights of 4-7 ft are east of 72W, and lower wave heights of 3-5 ft are between 80W-83W. West of 83W even lower wave heights of 2-3 ft are present, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through tonight. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will be in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night. A tropical wave along 58W and south of 15N will approach the Windward Islands this afternoon, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight through Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad upper-level troughing is just west of the Bahamas to over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level divergence to its east, where strong jet stream dynamics are present, is helping to sustain pockets of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between 66W-77W. At the surface, a trough roughly oriented north to south stretches from just off the Georgia coast, south-southwest to across central and South Florida. It continues south- southwest to the Florida Keys and to the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and few thunderstorms are noted over the Straits of Florida from near the upper Florida Keys east to the central Bahamas. A dissipating cold front extends from 31N33W southwest to 29N38W and to near 28.5N49W. No significant convection is evident with the front as broad high pressure overtakes it. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds, with possible isolated to scattered showers are along and within 60 nm southeast and south of the front. Otherwise, the aforementioned high pressure that is anchored by a 1024 mb high center near 31N58W encompasses just about the entire eastern and central Atlantic. Overnight ASCAT data passes show a swath of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 07N to 20N between 30W-66W, and northeast winds from 15N to 23N east of 30W. Light to gentle winds, in anticyclonic fashion, are elsewhere over the Atlantic. Wave heights, per latest altimeter data, range from 7-9 ft from 07N to 14N between 40W-54W and from 07N to 18N between 40W-61W. Slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft are elsewhere south of 21N east of the Bahamas and 3-6 ft over the rest of the Atlantic, except for lower wave heights of 1-2 ft west and southwest of the Bahamas, including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will change little through Mon. The high pressure will shift eastward as a cold front approaches the waters off northeast Florida on Tue. The northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the front. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon night. $$ Aguirre