000 AXNT20 KNHC 150552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, 04N24W, to 03N30W 01N35W 01N39w. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area from 10N southward from 40W eastward, and from 15N southward between 40W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico. A north-to- south oriented surface trough is in Florida from the Florida Keys to northeastern Florida. Ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico are producing some areas of slight to moderate haze in the western and southwestern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 92W westward; and from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. Gulf of Mexico high pressure will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through Wed. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds tonight. Fresh southeast to south return flow is expected over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Wed night due to a tighter pressure gradient in the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in much of Central America. A surface trough passes from the west central Caribbean Sea, through NW Cuba, to NE Florida. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 10N74W, through western Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N southward from 76W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate rainshowers, in the remainder of the area that is from 65W westward. Strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 72W and 76W. Fresh winds are in the rest of the area that is from 80W eastward. Moderate winds are from 80W westward. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet, occasionally at 9 feet, in the central and eastern parts of the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 19N northward from 85W westward, including in the Gulf of Honduras. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the area. Atlantic Ocean high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through Sun night. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will be in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night. A tropical wave, just east of the forecast waters near 56W, is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early on Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea from Mon through Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from 66W westward. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in Florida from the Florida Keys to northeastern Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 65W westward. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 20N to 26N between 68W and 73W. A dissipating cold front is along 31N35W to 29N49W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 50W westward, and elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean away from the dissipating cold front. Fresh winds are: from 03N to 24N from 70W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet: from 10N to 17N between 30W and 40W; and from 06N to 15N between 40W and 50W. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure over the area will change little through Mon. The high pressure will shift eastward as a cold front approaches the waters off northeast Florida on Tue. The northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the front. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon night. $$ MT/JA