000 AXNT20 KNHC 131650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri May 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 01N to 12N. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows a broad area of scattered moderate convection associated with the wave from 04N to 08N between 33W to 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W. It continues southwestward to 05N23W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 04N25W and to 03N34W. Scattered moderate convection is observed between 01N to 12N from 34W eastward to the African Coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb high center is analyzed near 26N90W. The associated broad surface anticyclone is resulting in a gentle to moderate wind flow pattern across the basin. The tail-end of a weak western Atlantic trough reaches southwestward into the southeast Gulf just off the coast of Cape Sable, Florida. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are found throughout the basin. Due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico, it is possible that hazy conditions may be in some areas of the west-central and southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will maintain a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Tue night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds on Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A central Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure difference between this high pressure and lower pressure over the rest of the Caribbean is allowing for fresh to strong trades to persist across the central and eastern Caribbean, mainly south of 18N and east of 79W. Seas there are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Water vapor imagery depicts a well pronounced mid and upper-level trough that extends from low pressure off the southeastern U.S. southwestward to western Caribbean and farther southwest to Honduras. A vigorous SW jet stream east of this trough is helping to sustain an area of moderate strong convection over the central Caribbean from 10N to 20N between 72W and 81W, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder of the basin with seas of 2 to 4 ft, mainly west of 79W, including the Gulf of Honduras area. Slighter higher wave heights of 3 to 5 ft are found north of 18N between 75W and 80W, and in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure building westward north of the Caribbean Sea will increase the trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue night. A tropical wave may bring scattered showers to portions of the eastern Caribbean starting late Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough fastened to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is located just off the Georgia coast near 31N81W, extends south- southwestward to Miami Beach, Florida and continues southwestward across the southern edge of the Florida peninsula to the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm east of the trough, north of 27N. Light to gentle SE winds are present over these waters with buoy data in the vicinity depicting wave heights of 3 to 5 ft. A broad mid to upper-level trough associated with the aforementioned surface low stretches southwestward and across the Florida peninsula to the western Caribbean Sea. Strong jet dynamics along the eastern periphery of this upper-level trough is supporting areas of moderate to strong convection further east of the surface trough from 20N to 27N and between 68W to 77W. Similar activity is noted within the Windward Passage. A broad area of fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft from 22N to 28N between 69W and 74W are associated with the strongest convective activity. Over the central Atlantic, high pressure associated with a 1029 mb high center north of the area near 35W60W is the main weather system driving the broad synoptic wind flow pattern across the remainder of the basin. Satellite derived winds and altimeter data reveal a wide area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds, mainly south of 21N along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the above-mentioned low pressure of 1014 mb centered just off the Georgia coast will continue to weaken while slowly moving inland today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake of the low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two systems will result in an area of fresh to strong southerly winds north of about 22N between 65W and 75W today. These winds will diminish slightly on Sat, then shift east and northeast through Mon night as a cold front passes to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front will reach the northeast forecast waters Tue and Tue night preceded by moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 28N and east of 66W. $$ Nepaul