938 AXNT20 KNHC 131035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N to 14N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and within 240 nm west of the wave from 04N to 07N, and east of the wave to 35W from 05N to 08N. Expect for convection to increase some today as the wave interacts with the southern part of a broad upper trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W. It continues southwestward to 08N20W and to 05N23W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 03N29W and to 04N34W and to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 10N between 12W-17W, from 03N to 08N between 17W-22W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 25W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high center is analyzed near 26N89W. The associated broad surface anticyclonic consists of a gentle to moderate wind flow. The tail-end of a weak western Atlantic trough reaches southwestward to just northeast of Key West. Wave heights throughout the Gulf are in the 2-4 ft range, except for slighter higher waves of 3-5 ft from 22N to 26N west of 94W. It is possible that hazy conditions may be in some areas of the west-central and southwestern Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will maintain a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, and fresh to strong on Sat night. Afterward, mainly fresh winds will prevail each night through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Central Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just N of the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure difference between the high pressure and lower pressure over the Caribbean is allowing for fresh to strong trades to exist south of 16N and east of 74W. Seas there are in the 6-8 ft range. Water vapor imagery depicts a well pronounced mid and upper-level trough that extends from low pressure off the southeastern U.S. southwestward to western Caribbean and farther southwest to Honduras. A vigorous SW jet stream east of this trough is helping to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean from 13N to 20N and between 72W-80W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere east of 81W and north of 13N. Moderate to fresh trades are over the remainder of the sea. A recent altimeter data pass revealed wave heights of 2-4 ft between 74W-80W. Similar wave heights are west of 80W, including the Gulf of Honduras area. Slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft are north of 18N between 76W-80W, and in the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly increasing along and just offshore the coast of Panama and over extreme northwest part of Colombia. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will build westward through the weekend increasing the trades across mainly the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue night. A tropical wave may bring scattered showers to portions of the eastern Caribbean starting late Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure center that is located just off the Georgia coast at 32N81W, south- southwestward to Florida near Fort Pierce. The trough continues southwestward to the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A large mid to upper-level low is centered over the 1013 mb surface low. The surface trough has weakened the gradient over the waters between Florida and the Bahamas. Overnight ASCAT data indicates light to gentle winds over these waters. A broad mid to upper-level trough associated to this low stretches southwestward to across the Florida peninsula and to the western Caribbean Sea. Strong jet dynamics eat of this trough is supporting areas of moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 31N and between 65W-74W. Similar activity is in the Windward Passage. To the northwest of this activity, scattered showers and recently developed thunderstorms are noted north of 27N and between 74W-80W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 27N and west of 74W, including the eastern section of the Straits of Florida. To the east of the shower and thunderstorm activity, high pressure is the main weather system that is driving the broad synoptic wind flow pattern across the central and eastern Atlantic. The high pressure is associated to a 1028 mb high center north of the area at 34W57W and to a 1024 mb high center at 37W40W. Broken to overcast mid and high clouds are streaming northeastward over the eastern Atlantic areas from 12N to 26N and east of 38W. The overnight ASCAT data depicts a wide area of fresh to strong southeast to south winds from 23N to 29N between 65W-71W. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are seen from 20N to 23N between 68W-71W. Seas are in the range of 6-8 ft within the area of fresh to strong winds. Fresh, to at times, strong northerly winds are from 14N to 21N between 19W-25W. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are from 13N to 25N between 55W-65W. Fresh northeast winds are from 07N to 12N between 42W-48W. Fresh to moderate easterly winds are elsewhere over the Atlantic. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft over most of the rest of the Atlantic south of 30N and east of about 60W eastward, except for higher wave heights of 5-7 ft from 07N to 12N between 42W-48W, from 15N to 20N between 20W-24W and from 04N to 23N between 44W-55W. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1013 mb low pressure will continue to weaken while slowly moving southwestward and inland Georgia today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake of the low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two systems will result in an area of fresh to strong southerly winds north of about 22N between 65W and 75W through Fri. These winds will diminish slightly on Sat, then shift east and northeast through Mon night as a cold front passes to the north and northeast of the Bahamas. The front reach the northeast forecast waters Tue and Tue night preceded by moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 28N and east of 66W. $$ Aguirre