000
AXNT20 KNHC 122245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 
37W from 01N to 12N. The wave is moving westward at 8 to 10 kt. 
This wave is denoted on GOES16 visible satellite imagery and in 
the CIRA precipitable water animation imagery. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave is from 05N to 09N between 
33W and 41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 13N16W and 
extends southwestward to 07N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 06N30W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm
S of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the north-
central Gulf near 29N93W. Associated anticyclonic flow throughout
the Gulf consists of gentle to moderate NE to E winds east of 
93W, including the Bay of Campeche, and SE to S winds west of 93W 
and north of 20N. Seas generally range from 2 to 4 ft across the 
basin.

Hazy conditions are possible in the west-central and southwestern
Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain a 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W 
coasts of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, then mainly fresh winds 
will prevail each night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Atlantic across the
far eastern edge of Cuba and into the Caribbean to near 19N80W. 
Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just north of 
the northeastern Caribbean. The gradient between the high pressure
and front is resulting in moderate to fresh east to southeast 
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean, generally west of
80W and south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
northeast to east trades prevail. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted in a
recent altimeter pass across the central and eastern Caribbean 
Sea, mainly north of 12N. Elsewhere, seas are generally 2 to 4 ft,
with 5 ft reaching into the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward N of the
Caribbean Sea will bring an increase in the trade wind flow across
the E and central Caribbean through Sat. Then, mainly fresh trade
winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of
Venezuela through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A brad area of low pressure is centered N of the area. A surface 
trough is analyzed from 29N79W to 24N79W. Scattered showers are 
present near the axis between 76W and 81W. To the east, a 
weakening stationary front extends from 31N67W to 24N69W to
21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of 
the front from 20N to 31N between 60W and 72W, with isolated 
strong along the front from 21N to 33N between 60W and 77W.

Light to gentle north to northeast winds exist between the 
surface trough and east coast of Florida, while a wide swath of  
fresh to strong southeast to south winds are present from 20N to 
28N between 65W and 75W. Wave heights are in the range of 8 to 9
ft due to long-period north to northeast swell within the area of 
north to northeast winds, and 6 to 8 ft within the area of fresh 
to strong southeast to south winds. Wave heights of 5 to 7 ft are 
elsewhere northeast and east of the Bahamas to 60W.

Further east, strong high pressure ridging prevails, anchored by 
a 1030 mb high well north of the area near 36N53W. Broad 
anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic north of 14N and east of 60W
eastward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow exists south 
of 28N across the central Atlantic, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft 
east of 60W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure over the W
Atlantic will continue to weaken while slowly moving 
southwestward to inland Georgia on Fri. High pressure across the 
central Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake 
of the low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two 
systems will result in an area of fresh to strong s

$$
ERA