858 AXNT20 KNHC 102349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean extends from the Equator to 13N, with an axis along 29W/30W. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kts. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 07N between 24W and 29W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 08N15W to 05N27W, then continues west of the tropical wave from 01N30W to 00N34W to 03N44W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 18W and 24W, and from 01S to 05N between 44W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from 28N88W to 23N85W, with another surface trough analyzed from 24N96W to 19N94W. No convection is noted with either trough. Otherwise, the Gulf of Mexico remains under the influence of high pressure centered north of the area, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE flow across the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Gulf. Hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may still be prevalent over the west-central and SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build SSW across the basin through early Wed then shift slowly west through Thu as a new center develops across the NW Gulf, then drifts east and remains across the N central Gulf through Sat. This will produce moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche this evening and again Wed evening. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu through Sat as the high becomes centered over northern portions of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure north of the basin is maintaining moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in these areas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail and seas are less than 5 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over much of northern Colombia and western Venezuela, as well as over Panama with adjacent areas offshore seeing some as well. A small area of similar convection is from 13N to 15N between 77W and 80W. For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the basin east of 78W through this evening. Low pressure offshore of the SE United States will drift southwest and move to mid way between South Carolina and Bermuda tonight, then drift west and eventually inland on Fri. The ridge across the Atlantic to the east of this feature will build westward behind the low late tonight through Fri and act to increase tradewinds to fresh to locally strong across the Caribbean east of 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The western Atlantic is dominated by a cut-off 1007 mb low pressure area just north of the area near 32N71W that is slowly drifting west-northwest. This system is maintaining fresh to strong N winds north of 29N and west of 73W. Seas in this area are 10 to 15 ft. A cold front stretches from 31N63W to 25N76W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered thunderstorms area noted north of 25N between 60W and 68W, as well as within 180 nm southeast of the front south of 25N including over the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba. Moderate west-northwesterlies behind the front shift to moderate to fresh southerlies east of the front. Seas of 8 ft or greater extend south to 25N and east to 68W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 29N49W to 21N47W with isolated to scattered showers possible near the axis. Otherwise, ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, along with moderate to locally fresh winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas in primarily NE-E swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move east- southeast and stall from just west of Bermuda to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, then gradually dissipate into late week. A 1007 mb low pres center located east-southeast and offshore of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina will move southwest to between Bermuda and the SE U.S. coast by Wed, then drift wets and inland over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and large N-NE swell associated with this system will impact areas west of 70W and north of 28N through Thu before diminishing. High pressure across the central Atlc will build west into the region behind the low late Wed through Sat. $$ Lewitsky