000 AXNT20 KNHC 070531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 00N30W to 00N50W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 18W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 01N to the coast of W Africa between the prime meridian and 10W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. A cold front extends over the N Gulf states from Georgia to Texas. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front currently affecting the NE Gulf and north Florida. This activity is accompanied by frequent lightning and likely strong gusty winds. This convective activity is being enhanced by an upper-level trough that is moving eastward across the SE CONUS and the central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over NE Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft supports numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of Guatemala and parts of the state of Chiapas in Mexico. Fresh southwest to west winds are over the northeastern Gulf per latest scatterometer data with seas of 4 to 7 ft based on buoy observations. Elsewhere, a light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted with the exception of moderate NE winds off the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf region, promoting quiescent conditions into early next week. A cold front will move into the NE Gulf today, slide SE and out of the area by Sun night. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan Mon through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Atlantic into the NE Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except light and variable winds over the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are still noted over parts of Cuba and Hispaniola. The majority of this activity developed due to afternoon heating, sea breezes and local terrain effects. Strong upper-level winds are advecting multilayer clouds, with possible showers, across the SE Caribbean into the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the Caribbean Sea will continue to move eastward while weakening. This will allow winds to diminish across the basin into the middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh trades near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela especially at night while mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed along the E coast of Florida. A band of showers and thunderstorms is over northern Florida and coastal waters. This convective activity is ahead of a cold front that extends across the SE CONUS. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 28N56W extends a ridge across the Atlantic W of 50W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are along the western periphery of the ridge affecting mainly the waters N of 27N and W of 65W. A surface trough stretches from 22N48W to 16N49W. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate NE winds on the W side of the trough to about 56W. A pair of altimeter passes across the same area show seas of 5 to 7 ft. Farther E, another trough extends from a weak 1016 mb low pressure situated near 31N33W to 20N36W. Light winds are on either side of the trough axis per scatterometer data. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge. Fresh northerly winds are between the Canary Islands, with moderate to fresh N winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft near the coast of Western Sahara. Elsewhere across the tropics, mainly gentle to moderate trade winds are observed with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward today. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will develop north of the Bahamas ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast today. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to the SE Bahamas by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Sun night through Tue night. $$ GR