000 AXNT20 KNHC 061016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 01N30W to the equator at 40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 13W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge centered over Florida dominates the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate SE-S return flow and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the eastern and western Gulf while moderate to fresh SE-S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the central basin. An outflow boundary along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts is leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection within about 90 nm of the coast. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and northern Central America is leading to some hazy conditions over the western Gulf. For the forecast, surface ridging across the E Gulf will gradually sink southward, promoting generally quiescent conditions over most of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. A weak cold front will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night through Sun, before dissipating while exiting the basin Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan Sun night into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong trades are occurring near the Guajira Peninsula and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with fresh trades having developed overnight in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades prevail, except light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba and in the far SW Caribbean, S of 11N. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the lee of Cuba. Convection over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola associated with an upper level trough has dissipated overnight, but moderate convection prevails along the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, the Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across most of the central Caribbean today. Nightly pulsing fresh to strong trades will also affect the waters off central Honduras into tonight. The Bermuda High will weaken Sat as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough stretches from about 31N70W to the SE Bahamas, with an associated surface low of 1014 mb NE of the Bahamas. Convection associated with this weakening system has diminished overnight. Winds are moderate or less on both sides of this system. A 1021 mb high pressure center is located SE of Bermuda near 28N62W. This is inducing moderate or less winds across most of the basin. Farther east, weak surface lows near 30N36W and 21N47W are connected by a surface trough. W of the trough axis, extending about 200 nm, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring, with light to gentle mainly SE winds to the E. Scattered moderate convection as developed along the trough, N of 25N. Seas throughout the basin are 3 to 5 ft, with an area of 6 ft seas in the area of moderate to fresh NE winds behind the aforementioned surface trough in the central Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are ongoing just off the coast of Morocco. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough and low will dissipate today. The rest of the area is dominated by the Bermuda High, which will weaken and migrate eastward into Sat. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will develop north of the Bahamas starting tonight, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Mon into Tue night. $$ Konarik