000 AXNT20 KNHC 052237 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri May 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to the equator at 23W, to 01N30W to 01S40W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 11W and 17W, south of 04N between 20W and 34W, and from 05N to 09N between 44W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the southeastern United States. Gentle to moderate SE-S return flow and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the eastern Gulf east of 90W, with moderate to fresh SE-S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas across the western Gulf west of 90W. Fair conditions cover the basin with no convective activity noted early this evening. That being said, several platforms in the northwest Gulf are reporting minor restrictions to visibility due to haze. For the forecast, surface ridging just north of the northern Gulf will gradually sink southward, promoting generally quiescent conditions over most of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. A weak cold front will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night through Sun, before stalling and dissipating over the Straits of Florida on Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan through Fri, and again Sun through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE-E trades continue just NW-N of the Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere in the central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the central Caribbean, highest northwest of the fresh to strong winds. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 6 ft outside of the central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean south of 13N between 76W and 84W, with similar activity across most of inland northern Venezuela, Colombia, and Central America. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the Greater Antilles as well with assistance from afternoon daytime heating. For the forecast, the Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela will maintain fresh to strong trades across most of the central Caribbean through tonight. Nightly pulsing fresh to strong trades will also affect the waters off central Honduras into Fri night. The Bermuda High will weaken Sat as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of surface troughs are noted over the SW N Atlantic, one from 31N77W to 26N74W, and the other to the south from the Central Bahamas near 24N76W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 23N to 28N between roughly 66W and 76W. High pressure of 1021 mb is located south of Bermuda near 29.5N64W. Gentle winds are noted just under the high, as well as west of 77W west of the troughs. Winds are gentle to moderate and anticyclonic elsewhere west of 55W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft between 55W and 74W in mainly SE swell, and 1 to 3 ft west of 74W and inside the Bahamas. East of the high pressure, a trough extends from 31N37W to 1016 mb low pressure near 21N48W to 16N60W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted within 150 nm west of the trough and low, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. High pressure northeast of the Azores extends through 31N25W to 24N30W to 17N55W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail under the ridge and elsewhere east of the trough and low, except moderate to fresh from 20N to 30N between the coast of Africa and 20W including through the Canary Islands, with fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 30N between the coast of Africa and 14W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the waters east of 55W in mixed NE and NW swell, except locally to 7 ft in the areas of stronger winds offshore Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist northeast of the Bahamas tonight, near a surface troughs in the area. The trough is forecast to dissipate by Fri night. The rest of the area dominated by the Bermuda High will weaken and migrate eastward Fri into Sat. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will develop north of the Bahamas starting Fri night, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast Sun morning. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to the Straits of Florida by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas on Mon and Tue. $$ Lewitsky