000
AXNT20 KNHC 050539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N15W to 01N30W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N to 
03N between 33W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high pressure is over the NE Gulf and dominates the
region. This system is producing light to gentle E-SE winds and 
seas of 3 ft or less east of 90W, and moderate winds and seas of 
3 to 5 ft west of 90W, except locally fresh in the Texas coastal 
waters, and to the N and NW of the Yucatan peninsula where a
surface trough is analyzed. Earlier, surface-based observations 
over the western Gulf and over in Mexico reported hazy conditions 
for much of the western Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in 
portions of Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will prevail across most of 
the basin through Thu. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will 
pulse in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula Thu night. The ridge will migrate eastward by Fri, as a 
weak cold front approaches the northern Gulf coast Fri night into 
Sat. The front is expected to move along the eastern Gulf coast 
through the weekend. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected
ahead of the front in the NE Gulf on Sat with gentle to moderate 
E-NE winds behind it. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are 
expected during the weekend in the western Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough that extends over the SE Bahamas and the Windward
passage continues to enhance some convective activity over parts 
of eastern Cuba and Haiti. A couple of narrow bands of clouds, 
with possible showers, are noted over the Leeward Islands extending
into the eastern Caribbean. Patches of low level clouds, embedded
in the trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea combined with lower 
pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong 
winds over the central Caribbean, strongest offshore Colombia as 
well as in the Gulf of Venezuela through the ABC Islands, with 
resultant 7 to 10 ft seas based on recent altimeter pass. Moderate
to locally fresh trades and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere 
across the E and central Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas over the 
NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong E to SE are also seen over
the Gulf of Honduras, but mainly near the Bay Islands.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge positioned to the south 
of Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the 
central Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to strong 
trades will also affect the waters off central Honduras through 
Fri night. The high pressure will weaken late this week into the 
weekend as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, 
allowing winds to diminish in the Caribbean by the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough located just E of Florida, and over the NW
Bahamas supports a large area of multilayer clouds NE of the
Bahamas. A diffluent pattern aloft ahead of this trough is helping
to induce numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms from 22N to 
28N between 71W and 75W. Part of this convective active now reaches
the SE Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed across the southern 
Bahamas into the Windward Passage. A 1022 mb high pressure remains
S of Bermuda near 29N65W and extends a ridge across the western 
Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally 
fresh NE winds are noted, per scatterometer data, on the southern 
periphery of the ridge, particularly S of 24N between 60W and 70W.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere west of 55W,
along with 3 to 5 ft seas outside the Bahamas, locally 5 to 7 ft 
just offshore Hispaniola. 

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N40W to 1014 mb 
low pressure located near 24N49W to 19N55W. Recent scatterometer 
data indicate the wind shift associated with the trough axis as 
well as fresh northerly winds on the western semicircle of the low
center. Fresh N to NE winds are also noted N of 28N and within 
about 75 nm W of the trough axis. The low is pretty well defined 
on satellite imagery. Seas are 4 to 7 ft near the trough and low 
based on altimeter data. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure located NE of the 
Azores. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are between the 
Canary Islands and just offshore southern Morocco. Seas are 6 to 8
ft, highest near the coast of southern Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough 
is forecast to meander over the next couple of days, enhancing 
some storm activity near it. The rest of the area is dominated by 
the high pressure system south of Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong
trades offshore northern Hispaniola will pulse overnight into 
early Thu. The high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward by 
Fri and into Sat. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will 
develop off the NE Florida coast by Fri night. A cold front is 
expected to move off the Florida coast by Sat and push southeast 
through Sun.

$$
GR