000
AXNT20 KNHC 041732
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed May 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Guinea near 10N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W 
to 02N30W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 
the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 36W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge south of Bermuda extends into the Gulf of 
Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh E winds across the central 
Gulf, moderate SE winds over the western Gulf, and light to 
gentle breezes over the NE Gulf. Seas in the E and NE Gulf, 
including the Florida Straits are 1 to 3 ft, while buoy 
observations from the remainder of the basin noted 3 to 5 ft 
seas. A buoy in the SW Gulf notes seas up to 6 ft. Surface-based 
observations over the western Gulf and over in Mexico continue 
to report hazy conditions for much of the western Gulf due to 
ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will support moderate to 
fresh E-SE winds across most of the Gulf waters through Thu. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the offshore waters 
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu night. The 
ridge will migrate eastward late this week into the weekend 
ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing winds to diminish. 
High pressure will rebuild over the basin by the end of the 
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the 
Caribbean Sea, except for some isolated convection offshore 
Panama due to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. A recent 
scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong trades across the 
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, due to the 
strong pressure gradient between high pressure south of Bermuda 
and lower pressures over Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are 
noted elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft in the south- central 
Caribbean, with heights up to 11 ft offshore Colombia. Seas are 
4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge positioned to the south 
of Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of 
the central Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to 
locally strong trades will also affect the waters just north of 
the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. The high pressure will 
weaken late this week into the weekend as it slides eastward 
toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish in the 
Caribbean by the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough located between the Bahamas and Florida, 
along with divergence aloft, is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over the Bahamas north of 23N. looking east, high 
pressure is centered just south of Bermuda near 30N64W, allowing 
for gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the western 
Atlantic, west of 50W. 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the area. 

Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 30N52W to 20N56W 
and may continue to support scattered showers north of 25N 
within 90 nm of the boundary. A recent scatterometer pass notes 
moderate SE winds east of the trough and north of 23N. The 
remainder of the basin is dominated by the Azores high, 
resulting in quiet weather conditions and, mainly moderate E-NE 
winds. Moderate to fresh trades are present N of 15N and between 
25W and the coast of Africa, including over the Canary Islands, 
where seas are up to 8 ft. Seas over the open tropical Atlantic 
are mainly moderate with wave heights to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak surface trough near the 
NW Bahamas is forecast to meander over the next few days, 
enhancing some storm activity near it. The rest of the area is 
dominated by the high pressure system south of Bermuda. Fresh to 
locally strong trades offshore northern Hispaniola will pulse 
nightly through early Thu. The high pressure will weaken and 
migrate eastward late this week and weekend as a cold front 
exits the southeastern United States.

$$
Mora