000 AXNT20 KNHC 041035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 01N32W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and between 35W and NE South America. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge south of Bermuda extends into the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the central and western Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft are noted. Surface-based observations and reports from offshore platforms show visibility is limited to 3 to 5 miles over much of the western Gulf due to fog and haze. For the forecast, moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow will prevail across most of the Gulf waters through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu night. The ridge will migrate eastward late this week into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing winds to diminish. High pressure will rebuild over the basin by the end of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent across the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient associated with the high pressure south of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean. Seas are 7-10 ft in the south- central Caribbean and 4-7 ft in the north-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail, except moderate or weaker between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, and seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge positioned to the south of Bermuda support fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to locally strong trades will also affect the waters just north of the Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure will weaken late this week into the weekend as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish in the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough is positioned north of the NW Bahamas and along with divergence aloft, supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and W of 75W. The subtropical ridge near 29N63W dominates the rest of the western Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are noted offshore northern Hispaniola, while the rest of the region W of 60W observes moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds. W of 60W, seas are 3-6 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 23N53W and supports scattered showers to the east of the trough axis, mainly N of 26N and W of 44W. Seas in this region are 4-7 ft. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic are under the dominion of the Azores high, resulting in quiet weather conditions. Moderate to fresh trades are present S of 15N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are occurring N of 18N and E of 25W, and the seas in this area are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough off NE Florida is forecast to meander over the next few days, enhancing some storm activity near it. The rest of the area is dominated by the high pressure system south of Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong trades offshore northern Hispaniola will pulse nightly through early Thu. The high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward late this week and weekend as a cold front exits the southeastern United States. $$ Delgado