000 AXNT20 KNHC 040438 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 04N between 43W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface remains in place across the northern Gulf. Farther south, the usual overnight surface trough has formed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is supporting supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas persist. Surface-based observations and reports from offshore platforms show visibility is limited to 3 to 5 miles over much of the western Gulf due to fog and haze. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across the Gulf waters through Thu, except gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse nightly in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu. The high pressure will retreat eastward late this week into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing winds to diminish. High pressure will rebuild over the basin by the end of the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak high pressure is north of the area and low pressure is over Colombia. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. A broad upper trough is evident along roughly 75W. Dry, subsident air west of the upper trough is maintaining generally fair conditions over the western Caribbean. A few showers are evident in the trade wind flow across the Windward Islands, with no other significant convection noted. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean through Fri. Pulsing nightly fresh to locally strong trades will also affect the waters just north of the Gulf of Honduras. The subtropical ridge will weaken late this week into the weekend as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish in the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp upper trough is digging into the region off northeast Florida. Associated divergent flow aloft is supporting surface trough and scattered showers and thunderstorms northeast of the northern Bahamas. 1024 mb high pressure is centered farther east, near 29N65W. Recent scatterometer satellite data along with ship observations show fresh to strong E winds south of the ridge funneling off the north coast of Hispaniola, across the Turks and Caicos and into the southern Bahamas. Another upper trough digging through 60W north of 27N is supporting a surface trough northeast of the Leeward Islands, reaching from 29N53W to 22N58W. While there is little shower or thunderstorms activity associated with these features, a recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong NE winds evident just west of the trough near 24N55W. Seas may be reaching 7 ft in this area, but are generally 4 to 6 ft elsewhere over open waters west of 55W. Elsewhere west of 35W, high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds south of 22N with 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 22N. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough located northeast of the Leeward Islands will drift southward through the week, with fresh to locally strong winds just west of it until it weakens late Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge centered south of Bermuda will maintain its influence across the remainder of the area through the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong trades offshore northern Hispaniola will pulse nightly through Thu. The high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward late this week and weekend as a cold front exits the southeastern United States. $$ Christensen