000 AXNT20 KNHC 021027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon May 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02N30W to 02N40W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed S of 07N and between the coast of Africa to 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high pressure and lower pressures over northern Mexico sustains fresh southerly winds W of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are seen in the SE Gulf, especially in the Florida Straits. Seas in the region are 3-6 ft. Light and variable winds persist over the northeast Gulf with 1 to 3 ft seas. Smoke and haze persist across portions of the western Gulf due to mostly agricultural fires over southern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow will persist across the region through Wed night due to a high pressure system over the western Atlantic. The fresh to strong southerly over the western and NW Gulf will diminish by this afternoon. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are likely in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through at least Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the 23N65W through the eastern Bahamas, Haiti and into the central Caribbean near 13N78W. Scattered showers are affecting the entrance of the Windward Passage, eastern Cuba and NW Haiti. The divergence aloft is being provided by an upper level trough that continues to dig into the NW Caribbean and slowly progresses eastward. Dry air associated with the upper level trough maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions in the NW Caribbean. The influence of the surface trough is diminishing across the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico as it continues to move away. However, diurnal heating and the current moist profile may allow for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop later today, causing localized flash flooding. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also present in the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 14N and between 72W and 82W, likely in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough that enters the basin through the Costa Rica and Panama border. Fresh to strong trades are prevalent over much of the eastern and central Caribbean, south of a high pressure system positioned near Bermuda. These winds are supporting 5-9 ft seas. Mostly moderate NE to E winds and 2-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through most of the week. The strongest winds will affect the waters offshore NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing nightly Tue through late this week. The surface trough will continue moving today to the northwest, enhancing storm activity across the E Bahamas, E Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough extends from 23N65W to Haiti and into the central Caribbean. It is producing scattered showers S of 24N and between 65W and 75W, affecting the SE Bahamas, E Cuba and NW Haiti. In the north-central Atlantic, a stationary front enters the basin near 31N48W and continues to 29N51W, where it transitions into a trough to 23N57W. No deep convection is associated with these features. Moderate to fresh easterly flow is present S of 28N and between 56W and the Bahamas. This is supported by a subtropical ridge positioned near Bermuda. Seas W of 60W are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are noted S of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this region are 5-8 ft. Farther east, fresh to strong N-NE winds are found N of 20N and E of 30W, sustained by a subtropical ridge near the Azores and lower pressures over northern Africa. Seas in this area are also 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue moving today to the northwest, enhancing storm activity across the eastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. High pressure will dominate the remainder of the forecast region through midweek, before a cold front exiting the eastern United States pushes the subtropical ridge eastward, weakening it in the process. $$ DELGADO