000 AXNT20 KNHC 010531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy rain over the NE Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola: Current radar imagery from Puerto Rico shows large clusters of showers and thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico, moving northeastward toward the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands. This is related to a surface trough reaching across the Leeward Islands to the east-central Caribbean. Heavy rainfall has been reported across the islands, with Guadeloupe receiving over 11 inches of rain in the past 24 hours. The rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of these islands through today, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. Looking ahead, the upper trough supporting the surface features is starting to weaken, and drier air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is starting to move across the region behind the upper trough. Thus the heavier rainfall should diminish through the early part of the week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 01S45W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 38W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida and the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. A trough is evident off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula currently. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere. Observations from southern Mexico indicate hazy conditions in some area, likely impacting the visibility over the southwest Gulf. Platform observations are also reporting a few areas of fog over the northwest Gulf. Generally fair conditions are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through midweek. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across the NW Gulf on Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain now through Sun night for the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong E winds off Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola, and off the central coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. In addition to the clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the northeast Caribbean mentioned in the Special Features, a few showers are evident over the southwest Caribbean where trade wind flow is converging into the monsoon trough. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia beginning on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 31N49W to 25N60W to 24N63W, where it becomes stationary and continues toward the northern Bahamas. 1023 mb high pressure is centered north of the front between Bermuda and northeast Florida at 30N72W. A surface trough is evident ahead of the front from 24N57W through the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm east of this trough from 19n to 21N. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are evident west of 65W, with 5 to 7 ft seas over open waters. Farther east, 1029 mb high pressure centered just southwest of the Azores is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas south of 20N, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N and west of 35W, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas north of 20N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide southeastward across the forecast waters on Sun becoming stationary east of 65W on Mon. The stationary part of the front will continue to weaken while drifting northward through Sun. At the same time, a surface trough currently located over the NE Caribbean will drift northwestward, reaching Hispaniola and the Atlantic regional waters on Sun, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics will continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall across the area. No significant change for the waters between 35W and 55W. $$ Christensen