000 AXNT20 KNHC 301642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from near 22N58W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near 16N65W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 14N and east of 69W, currently affecting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics is likely to result in periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N12W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 08W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over the western Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Wed night. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across the NW and W central Gulf by Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the special features section, scattered strong convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean, south of 12N and west of 78W. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia beginning on Mon. A surface trough located over the NE Caribbean will drift northwestward this weekend and into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N52W to 25N65W where it transitions to a stationary front to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers are along the boundary. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range north of the front and east of 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere north of the front. A surface trough extends from 22N58W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near 16N65W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated to the trough is covering the waters from 17N to 21N between 55W and 67W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range elsewhere north of 20N, and 6-8 ft south of 20N. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will slide southeastward across the forecast waters. The stationary part of the front will continue to weaken while drifting northward through Sun. $$ AL