000 AXNT20 KNHC 300934 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from near 22N58W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near 15N65W. The trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics is likely to result in periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea Bissau near 11N15W to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm of the boundaries mainly W of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the western Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 24N89W to 20N92W. To the NE, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted N of 27N and E of 88W. Latest buoy observations indicate mainly moderate SE flow across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the area through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. Fresh to strong nightly pulsing winds are possible off the Yucatan Peninsula Sun through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh easterlies dominate the basin with strong NE winds likely south of Hispaniola and north of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin, 4-6 ft in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades pulsing across offshore southern Hispaniola through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds offshore Colombia will continue through the weekend. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across the SW Caribbean this weekend into early next week. A surface trough located across the Leeward Islands will move northwestward this weekend and into early next week. A surge of fresh to strong winds will expand over the eastern and central Caribbean Sat night through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N72W. Convection along the front is weak and marine conditions are generally moderate. Fresh winds prevail W of the front with seas to 9 ft enhanced by a NW swell. To the E, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 31N32W. Scatterometer data reveals gentle winds surrounding the high pressure center, gradually increasing to moderate to fresh S of 18N and E of 20W. In the eastern Atlantic, strong NE winds are funneling through the gaps in the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 6-8 ft throughout the central and eastern basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide southeastward across the forecast waters while losing strength during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected behind the front tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N to NW swell accompanying the front will stay N of 30N and E of 70W and is forecast to subside by late Sun. A trough is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 25N this weekend into early next week. $$ ERA