000 AXNT20 KNHC 290417 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from 17N58W to the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W. This trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean Fri and into early next week pulling plentiful moisture northward. This trough, enhanced by favorable upper- level dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from Fri night through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 01S47W along the northern coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection to isolated strong convection is noted from the coast of Africa to 27W between 02N-08N. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging across the basin in leading to mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin, with the exception of fresh easterlies along the west coast of central Florida. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the SE United States Fri into the weekend. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist in the SW Caribbean due to abundant atmospheric moisture and divergence aloft. Isolated showers are also occurring in the eastern Caribbean due to a surface trough near the Lesser Antilles. Winds are generally moderate across the basin, with fresh northeasterlies in the Windward Passage and fresh to strong northeasterlies along the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue to affect the Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola during the next few days. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected offshore Colombia tonight and will become moderate to fresh through the weekend. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across the SW Caribbean through the weekend. Northerly swell will propagate through Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Fri night. A surge of fresh to strong winds will accompany a trough that will move through the eastern and central Caribbean this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N61W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Weak showers are possible along the front, though most thunderstorms are currently confined to the coastal waters near south Florida. Winds behind the front are fresh from the NE with moderate conditions ahead of the front. Seas are currently 6-8 ft behind the front and 5-7 ft ahead. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N28W to 19N43W. This system has been slowly weakening over the last few days. Winds are now moderate or less with abating seas of 8-12 ft from 25W-60W, extending as far south as 16N. In the far eastern Atlantic, near gale force northerlies along the coast of Morocco are generating an area of 8-11 ft seas NE of the Canary Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds are also observed between the Islands and along the coast of Western Sahara. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate winds and seas below 8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic front will continue to slide southeastward across the forecast waters while losing strength through early in the weekend. Fresh NE winds are expected behind the front. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell remain east of 65W, forecast to subside by Sat. Northerly swell producing seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate south, shifting east-southeast north of 28N through the weekend. A trough is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend into early next week. $$ Flynn