000 AXNT20 KNHC 282349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The gradient between strong high pressure of 1030 mb well north of the area near 46N13W and lower pressure over north Africa is resulting in gale-force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. The Gale Warning remains in effect for this area until late tonight at 29/0300 UTC. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected in this area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from 17N58W to the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W. This trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean Fri and into early next week pulling plentiful moisture northward. This trough, enhanced by favorable upper- level dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from Fri night through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N35W and to the northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm SE of the trough between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W-28W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 36W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed along a position from near 28N86W to 26N88W and to 24N90W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with isolated weak showers are within 120 nm E of the trough from 26N to 28N. Similar clouds, with possible isolated weak showers are also seen from 28N to 29N between 85W-87W. Otherwise, weak ridging generally remains across the rest of the basin. ASCAT data passes from this afternoon indicates that mainly gentle easterly winds are present over the basin, except for fresh winds in the southeastern Gulf, eastern Bay of Campeche and west-central Gulf areas. Seas throughout are in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the southeastern U.S. on Fri allowing for mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds to exist over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The combination of available abundant moisture that is present and divergence aloft is resulting in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, mainly to the south of 13N and west of 76W. This convection is located to the north of the east Pacific trough, which is situated over Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and offshore portions of the coast of Venezuela, including near the ABC Islands. A surface trough extends from near 17N58W southwestward to the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with patches of rain and possible scattered showers are near and along the trough. ASCAT data from this afternoon depicts mainly moderate E trades over the majority of the sea including the Gulf of Honduras, with the exception of north of 15N between 64W-76W where fresh east trades are present. Latest altimeter data passes and buoy observations note seas of 3-6 ft north of 15N and east of 85W, including the vicinity of the Windward Passage and also from 11N to 15N west of 80W. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are confined to south of 15N between 72W-76W, including near the coast of Colombia. Lower seas of 2-4 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras and north of 18N west of 76W. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean, with axis roughly oriented east to west roughly along 25N, will maintain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola during the next few days. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will continue except for gentle winds in the southwestern Caribbean. Isolated westward moving showers will be possible W of about 71W through the weekend. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Fri night before subsiding. The trough that currently extends from near 17N58W to the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W will move northwestward through the eastern and central Caribbean Fri into early next week. This trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms over the weekend for portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A surge of strong easterly winds will follow in the wake of the trough from late Sun afternoon through early next week over the central Caribbean Sea. Seas with this surge are expected to reach 8 or 9 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the Agadir area near the coast of Morocco. A cold front extends from near 31N64W to 29N72W and to just east of Fort Pierce, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of the front to near 26N and west of 77W to South Florida. Fresh NE winds are observed to the north of the front, mainly west of about 74W, where seas are 6-7 ft. A 1018 mb high pressure center is located near 25N69W. A ridge extends east from the high to near 61W and west to South Florida. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis. A cold front extends from near 31N30W to 25N39W and to 22N30W, where it becomes stationary to 19N45W. Areas of moderate rain along with embedded scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are noted well to the east of the front north of 28N between 18W-25W. Latest ASCAT data shows strong south to southwest winds near the cold front north of 25N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are in between the front and the surface trough north of 25N. An earlier altimeter pass from 28/1430 UTC measured seas of 13-15 ft from 26N-31N between 47W-50W. Seas of 12 ft or greater remain north of 26N between 30W-48W. Seas of 8 ft or greater, in primarily north swell, extend as far south as 18N between 25W-65W. To the south, over the tropical Atlantic, moderate trades are present along with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, seas of 8 ft or greater in a north to northeast swell east of 65W will subside by late tonight or early Fri. The cold front extending from 31N64W to 29N72W and to just east of Fort Pierce will move southeastward across the forecast waters while weakening through Sat. The fresh northeast winds behind the front will become northeast to east on Fri and continue through Fri night as they veer around to the east-southeast. Associated seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate south of 31N late today and shift east- southeast, north of 28N through the weekend. A trough that is over the western part of the tropical north Atlantic waters and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend and into early next week. $$ Aguirre