000 AXNT20 KNHC 281639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure near 39N16W and lower pressure over north Africa is producing gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. The Gale Warning remains in effect for this area until late tonight at 29/0300 UTC. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected in this area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic: A surface trough that extends from 17N56W to 11N62W will move northwestward through the eastern and central Caribbean Fri into early next week, drawing ample moisture northward. The surface trough, enhanced by favorable upper-level dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Fri night through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 01N35W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N between 05W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf of Mexico from 28N86W to 25N87W. Scattered showers are near the trough. Weak ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Most of the Gulf is experiencing gentle winds, except for moderate E winds in the far NE Gulf and moderate SSE winds off the coast of southern Texas and NE Mexico. Seas are 2-3 ft across the NE and central Gulf. Seas are 3-4 ft across the SW and west-central Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will build into the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will increase slightly this weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered strong convection over the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly south of 13N and west of 75W. This convection is located to the north of the east Pacific trough, which is situated over Panama. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and offshore portions of the coast of Venezuela, including near the ABC Islands. A surface trough extends from 17N56W southwestward to 11N62W. Scattered showers are near the trough. Fresh trades prevail across most of the central Caribbean between 65W-79W, with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 5-6 ft elsewhere, except 6-8 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean, offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean, oriented along 26N, will maintain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola during the next few days. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue affecting the SW Caribbean today. Northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages through Fri night before subsiding. The trough that currently extends from 17N56W to 11N62W will move northwestward through the eastern and central Caribbean Fri into early next week. This trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms over the weekend for portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. A surge of strong easterly wind will follow in the wake of the trough late Sun through early next week over the central Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the Agadir area near the coast of Morocco. A cold front extends from 31N65W to 29N71W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front. Fresh NE winds are observed to the north of the front, mainly west of 75W, where seas are 6-7 ft. A 1018 mb high pressure near 26N70W is located along a surface ridge that is oriented east-west along 26N from South Florida to the high to 25N65W to 22N55W. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis. A cold front extends from 31N31W to 24N37W, where it becomes a stationary front, which continues to 19N46W. A broad surface trough trails the front from 31N39W to 25N42W to 21N57W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the cold front, north of 25N between 23W-31W. ASCAT shows strong SSW winds near the cold front north of 25N. Fresh to strong SW winds are in between the front and the surface trough north of 25N. Fresh W to NW winds are west of the surface trough, north of 25N and east of 48W. An earlier altimeter pass from 28/1430 UTC measured seas of 13 to 15 ft from 26N-31N between 47W-50W. Seas of 12 ft or greater currently prevail north of 26N between 30W-48W. Seas of 8 ft or greater, in primarily north swell, extend as far south as 18N between 25W-65W. To the south, over the tropical Atlantic, moderate trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell east of 65W will continue this afternoon, subsiding by late tonight or early Fri. The cold front extending from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will move southeastward across the forecast waters while weakening through the end of the week. Fresh NE winds are expected to continue behind the front through Fri. Associated seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate south of 31N late today and shift east-southeast, north of 28N, through the weekend. A trough that currently extends from 17N56W to 11N62W is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend into early next week. $$ Hagen