000 AXNT20 KNHC 260913 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force NW-N winds and large seas of 11 to 16 ft are following a reinforcing cold front which extends from 31N46W to 25N60W to 31N71W. A larger area of fresh to near gale-force winds and seas of 8 ft or greater surrounds the gale-force winds. The gale-force winds west of the reinforcing front will diminish to strong to near gale-force later this morning, with S-SW winds ahead of the reinforcing front increasing to gale-force this afternoon. Any gale-force winds are forecast to lift north of 31N by late tonight into early Wed. Very large seas will continue to spread across the open central Atlantic, peaking around 18 ft near 31N between 50W and 55W tonight through Wed. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The Outlook for the Meteo-France marine forecast consists of persistence or threat of northerly near gale-force or gale-force winds in the areas of Agadir and Tarfaya. Please refer to the latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 01S24W. The ITCZ continues from 01S24W to 03S35W to just northeast of the coast of Brazil near the equator and 48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 23W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 35W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved into the S-central Louisiana to southern Texas coastal waters with moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas behind it. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are spreading across the NW and W-central Gulf associated with this surface feature and mid-level support. Weak ridging prevails ahead of the front with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NE and N-central Gulf due to ridging over the southeastern United States, and moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere ahead of the front. Haze and reduced visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Mexico and northern Central America continue across the western Gulf. For the forecast, a surface ridge extending southwestward from a high off the Georgia coast will weaken today as a cold front in the NW Gulf coastal waters progresses slowly eastward. Winds will pulse to fresh and strong offshore north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba this evening. The cold front will weaken across the central Gulf through Wed. Afterward, high pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche today due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An east to west surface trough extends from the far SW Caribbean north of Panama to the Costa Rica and Panama border. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of this trough, as well as offshore of Nicaragua to 80W. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light and variable in the far SW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Cuba, near Jamaica and Haiti through this evening. Northerly swell will move into the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central and eastern Atlantic. High pressure centered near 31N75W is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the western Atlantic, north of the Bahamas and west of 71W along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the waters west of 68W, including the central and southern Bahamas to north of Cuba, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Farther east, a dissipating cold front and reinforcing cold front dominate the waters north of 20N between 68W and 40W with associated conditions described with the central Atlantic Gale Warning in the Special Features section above. A pair of weak 1016 mb highs are east-southeast of the fronts, with one west of the Canary Islands near 29N26W and the other near 24N31W. A ridge axis extends through the highs southwestward through 20N40W to near the Anegada Passage, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds under the ridge axis. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except fresh to strong from 11N to 16N between the coast of Africa and 21W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in that area of fresh to strong winds, and mainly 4 to 6 ft elsewhere over the open tropical Atlantic waters outside of the fronts mentioned above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted roughly from 08N to 17N between 52W and 62W in moist SW flow aloft associated with a mid- level trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will continue southeastward, with winds and seas building in its wake. Winds of gale-force north of 25N and east of 65W will shift southeast of 55W later this morning. Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail west of 70W through tonight. A cold front will move offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky