000 AXNT20 KNHC 250915 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A serious of cold fronts and troughs will move across the central Atlantic this week. Winds will reach gale- force strength in the vicinity of the front beginning tonight at 00Z and continue through Tue at 18Z, with southerly gale-force winds then developing north of 25N and ahead of the front Tue 18Z through 12Z Wed. The area affected will be mainly north of 25N between 35W and 65W. Seas in this area will range between 8 to 16 ft. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N34W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N east of 20W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 05N between 20W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 37W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging continues to extend across the southeastern United States with mainly moderate to fresh return flow across the Gulf waters, except fresh to strong northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the western Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft across the eastern Gulf. Haze and reduced visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Mexico and northern Central America continue across the western Gulf, with the addition of patchy fog possible offshore of Texas and SW Louisiana. For the forecast, a ridge over the southeastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh E-SE flow today and tonight, except winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba early today, tonight, and Tue night. A cold front will drop across the northern Gulf Tue and wash out over the central portion through Wed. High pressure will return for the end of the week. Hazy conditions are possible over the western Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An east to west surface trough extends from NW Colombia to the Costa Rica and Panama border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near the trough. Deep convection is noted across much of Colombia and portions of southern Venezuela. A mid-level low centered near western Cuba is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the basin north of 15N between 70W and 84W, including over Cuba, Haiti, and Jamaica. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are pulsing in the immediate lee of Cuba, across the approach to the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the south-central Caribbean offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except light and variable in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the immediate lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near the coast of Colombia through the week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move into the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the central Atlantic. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 26N55W to 25N65W, while a reinforcing cold front is pushing south of 31N. Scattered showers are possible near the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 29N west of the leading front to 60W or so. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW-N swell is accompanying the winds. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 25N between 40W and 65W. High pressure is centered west of Bermuda near 32N70W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are south of 27N and west of 70W, locally strong near the Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are found elsewhere west of 65W. A weak pressure pattern prevails across most of the remainder of the tropical Atlantic with an unimpressive 1015 mb low pressure area near 25N42W, and a sympathetic 1016 mb high pressure area near 22N31W. A surface trough is located just west of the Canary Islands from 31N19W to 23N24W. These features are supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas across the open tropical Atlantic waters, locally 8 ft offshore of Africa to 22W from 10N to 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front from 26N55W to 25N65W will reach 20N by mid-week, while several reinforcing troughs or fronts move across the waters east of 70W in the wake of the front. Winds will increase and seas will build with each passing trough, and winds are forecast to reach gale-force north of 29N and east of 65W Mon evening, shifting south-southeast through early Tue. Meanwhile, high pres will prevail west of 70W through Tue night. A cold front will move offshore of northern Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky