000 AXNT20 KNHC 240536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N17W and 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 01N37W. A surface trough is along 06N45W 02N43W 01S41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the west and southwest of the surface trough, between 41W and 47W. The ITCZ also is along 06N49W 07N55W 10N58W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Sierra Leone; within a 30 nm radius of 04N22W, and 03N26W; from 03N to 05N between 32W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to inland Mexico near 19N97W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: earlier widely scattered moderate to isolated strong has been from 22N northward from 100W eastward, in Mexico, has been weakening comparatively. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico from 22N to 28N from 92W eastward. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are in the SE and S central Gulf of Mexico, just to the north of NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the NE and E central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that patchy haze, that is due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico, may reduce the visibilities to 5 sm in the Bay of Campeche. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through at least Mon producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse mainly across the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon night. Hazy conditions are possible in the Bay of Campeche, due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. A cold front may reach the NW Gulf on Tue, then wash out over the basin through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the north of the line that runs from the east central coastal sections of Nicaragua to the Mona Passage. A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 10N81W, in broad surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 70W westward. Fresh to strong ENE trade winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, have been near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate E trade winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet, cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola during the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail through next week, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move into the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 23N46W, northwestward, to 30N49W. Fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 65W westward. Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 50W and 60W. Fresh northerly winds are between Africa and the Canary Islands from 13N to 18N. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 10N northward from 40W eastward. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 40W eastward. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N35W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N21W. A surface trough is between the high pressure centers, along: 16N38W 24N30W 30N25W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite images. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 60W eastward. High pressure located north of the forecast area will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds between the Bahamas and Cuba, including also the Straits of Florida through early next week. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W and 70W Sun through early next week. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front, gradually subsiding by the end of next week. Another cold front may move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed, washing out along 27N by the end of next week. $$ mt