000 AXNT20 KNHC 221721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the equator north to the monsoon trough between 10W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator north to 07N between 47W and 53W, enhanced by upper level divergence. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging associated with 1030 mb high pressure centered in Georgia continues over the Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic. The sole surface feature this afternoon is a weak surface trough that extends from near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest surface observations and scatterometer data. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft, locally 7 ft on approach to and within the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are currently impacting the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Smoke and haze mainly due to agricultural fires may reduce visibilities within the Bay of Campeche and along the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. For the forecast, high pressure extending from north of the region will support fresh to strong E-NE winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf through Sat night, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest winds should return again tonight. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions are possible over the western and central Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Colombian/Panamanian Low is analyzed in the SW Caribbean at 10N81W. A small segment of the East Pacific Trough extends from the low to the coast near the border of Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered showers are noted across the SW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin south of 17N, with moderate to locally fresh trades north of 17N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a strong high pressure located north of the region will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the NW Caribbean, with pulses of primarily strong NE to E winds south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours through early this weekend. Afterward, high pressure over the SE U.S. should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shear line extends from 27N68W to the central Bahamas. Fresh NE winds are located north of the shear line with gentle to moderate NE winds south of the shear line, according to recent surface observations and scatterometer data. Seas are 7-9 ft north of the shear line to 27N. A weak surface trough extends from 30N66W to 27N65W in an area of light winds. Further east, a 1015 mb low pressure is centered at 24N45W, with moderate cyclonic winds in the NW quadrant and light to gentle winds around the remainder of the cyclone. A surface trough extends from 25N33W to 15N41W. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is evident near northern sections of the trough, within an area from 24N to 29N between 27W and 36W. An upper level low is currently supporting this precipitation. Strong NE to E winds are currently impact the Straits of Florida and the waters between the Bahamas and the South Florida coast. Fresh to strong NE winds are also found in the central Atlantic from 29N to 31N between 39W and 46W, and within 240 nm of the coast of Mauritania. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft W of 55W. In the central tropical Atlantic northwest of a line from 23N49W to 28N40W to the coast of Morocco near 31N10W, seas are 8-10 ft in NE to N swell. Elsewhere in open waters, seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure of 1030 mb located over the Mid- Atlantic States will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas through early this weekend, including the Straits of Florida. Winds and seas will diminish this Sun into early next week. A cold front is expected to enter the NE waters between 55W and 65W on Sun, and extend from 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale force NW winds are likely to the north of the front, along with building seas to the east of 65W. $$ Mahoney