000
AXNT20 KNHC 220908
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa and
offshore near 12N16W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to
the equator near 20W to northeast of the coast of Brazil near
03N37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 03S to 00N between 28W and 33W, from 02N to 06N between 29W
and 40W, from 03S to 02N between 38W and 46W, and from 00N to 11N
between 46W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large surface ridge extends across the southeastern United
States with E-SE flow dominating the basin, except NE-E in the
southeast Gulf. Wind speeds are fresh to strong in the eastern
Gulf, and in the south-central Gulf near the north and west coasts
of the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate to fresh speeds elsewhere. 
Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft across the basin, locally to 8 ft in the
areas of fresh to strong winds. A few showers are evident just 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula as well as in the southeast Gulf
northwest of Cuba, with isolated thunderstorms possible near the
Yucatan Channel. Smoke and haze mainly due to agricultural are 
reducing visibility over the Bay of Campeche and along the coast 
of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. 

For the forecast, high pressure extending from north of the 
region will support fresh to strong E-NE winds over the eastern 
and south-central Gulf through Sat night, including the Straits of
Florida and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. The strongest winds should occur early this morning and
again tonight. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Hazy conditions are possible over the western and 
central Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of surface troughs are noted in the basin, one extending
from western Haiti southward to near 13N75W, and another from the
coast of Colombia near 11N75W to 12N81W. These troughs are helping
to enhance the risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms in
their vicinity. High pressure located north of the basin continues
to support fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean in the Lee of
Cuba, with fresh winds through the Windward Passage and also
offshore of Haiti. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except light
to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the NW
Caribbean, except 4 to 6 ft offshore of Honduras and Belize, with
3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong high pressure located north of the 
region will support fresh to locally strong ENE winds across the 
NW Caribbean, with pulses of primarily strong ENE winds south of 
Cuba and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours through 
early this weekend. Afterward, high pressure over the SE U.S. 
should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through early 
next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from north of the area through 31N63W
to 24N77W. Scattered showers are likely in the vicinity of the
front. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are blowing south of 27N and
west of the front including through the Bahamas to the Straits of
Florida. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in residual and fresh NE swell are
found west of the front and northeast of the Bahamas. Farther 
east, a 1014 mb low pressure area is centered near 24.5N44.5W 
along with two accompanying surface troughs which curl completely 
around the low between 150 and 420 nm. Scattered showers are 
possible near the low and troughs, with thunderstorms possible 
from 24N to 30N between 30W and 40W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds 
are noted within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low, 
with seas estimated to be 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds 
and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 35W, with locally
fresh winds northeast of the Leeward Islands. Farther east, 
moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted from 12N to 25N west of 
Africa to 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
today as it retreats slowly northward. High pressure located off 
New England will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas 
to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas through 
early this weekend, including the Straits of Florida. Winds and 
seas will diminish this Sun into early next week. A cold front is 
expected to enter the NE waters between 55W and 65W on Sun, and 
extend from 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale 
force NW winds are likely to the north of the front, along with 
building seas to the east of 65W. 

$$
Lewitsky