000 AXNT20 KNHC 201623 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning off Morocco: A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered near the Azores and lower pressures over northwestern Africa supports gale force winds, with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya in the Meteo- France area of responsibility. These conditions are forecast to continue to at least 21/09 UTC, through early Thu morning. An earlier ASCAT pass showed N winds of 35-40 kt in the area. Seas are likely 12-14 ft in the area of gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 00N between 21W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to the south- central Gulf near 23N92W. 1032 mb high pressure centered north of the front over the Carolinas is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the northeast Gulf, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. A mid level trough is supporting a few showers off south Texas, but generally fair skies prevail elsewhere. A few observations in the Mexican state of Veracruz are reporting moderate visibility in haze and smoke, due in part to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Fires over the Yucatan Peninsula are likely reducing visibility in the southwest Gulf, and possibly into the northwest Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will continue over most of the Gulf through this afternoon. Patchy smoke produced by agricultural fires in Mexico will reduce visibility in the Bay of Campeche through late this afternoon. Thereafter, a strengthening high over the Mid- Atlantic States will cause pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern and south- central Gulf tonight through Fri night, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds should dominate the entire Gulf for the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough reaches from off northeast Florida to the Gulf of Honduras. An associated surface trough extends from the western Atlantic to across Haiti. Abundant moisture, fresh to strong trade winds, and divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the trough altogether continue to support clusters of showers across the north central Caribbean and over Hispaniola where locally heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding is possible. Generally fair skies prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted west of the surface trough over the northwest Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are observed over the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds 2 to 4 ft seas evident over the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, the showers over the north-central Caribbean will gradually diminish through late week as trough weakens. Building high pressure north of the area will support persistent fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the far northwest Caribbean through Sat. Expect gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N66W to near Nassau, Bahamas where it transitions to a stationary front and continues to the Florida Keys. This is related to a mid-upper level trough reaching from off the Carolinas to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident west of the front with 6 to 9 ft seas over open waters. A surface trough is ahead of the front reaching from 28N66W to northern Haiti. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm east of the trough. Recent scatterometer data and a report from the NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer indicated fresh to strong trade winds south of 22N to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Buoy reports show seas to be 5 to 7 ft in this region. Farther east, 1015 mb low pressure is noted near 27N36W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the low with 9 to 11 ft seas. Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N east of 40W, except for the gale conditions off Morocco. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident across the remainder of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the mid- to upper-level trough will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms through tonight between 65W and the SE Bahamas. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida by this afternoon, where it will stall before retreating slightly NW Thu and dissipating Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will develop NW of the front this morning and persist through at least Thu night. Strong winds will pulse again in the Straits on Florida Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish over the weekend. $$ Christensen