549 AXNT20 KNHC 201021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered near the Azores and lower pressures over northwestern Africa supports gale force winds, with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These conditions are forecast to continue to at least 21/09 UTC, through early Thu morning. An earlier ASCAT pass showed N winds of 35-40 kt in the area. Seas are likely 12-15 ft in the area of gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24.5N81W to 22N89W to 24N95W. Fresh E winds prevail over the eastern Gulf. Fresh SE winds are occurring over the western Gulf. Seas range from 4-7 ft, highest over the central and west-central Gulf. Isolated to scattered showers are noted over the NW and west-central Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through Thu. Fresh winds will continue over most of the Gulf this morning. Thereafter, a strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic States will cause pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf tonight through Fri night, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds should dominate the entire Gulf for the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough has reflected at the surface enhancing convection over Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea between 68W-78W. Abundant moisture will persist over this area through tonight, supporting locally heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding for portions of eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Fresh NE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 18N. Scatterometer data indicates that the Colombia low has moved northward and is centered over water near 14N77W. Gentle winds prevail near the low. Farther E, moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean, where seas are 4-6 ft. Seas are 4-5 ft in the NW Caribbean, except up to 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 3-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida westward to well north of the Yucatan Channel will remain north of the basin through Thu evening. This will bring fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean through the remainder of the week. Pulses of strong winds are expected across the waters S of Cuba at night, tonight through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N68W to 27N73W to the Straits of Florida near 24.5N81W. A pre-frontal surface trough extending from 29N68W to the N coast of Haiti is currently the focal point for scattered moderate convection, which is being enhanced by a mid- to upper-level trough in the area. This shower activity is occurring between 63W-73W from Hispaniola to 31N. Fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are along and to the NW of the cold front. To the east, a 1015 mb low is spinning near 27N35W along a surface trough that extends from 31N34W to 20N36W. A well-defined swirl of mainly low clouds and a few showers is related to the low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1032 mb high pressure located near the Azores. Due to the gradient between the 1015 mb low and the 1032 mb high, strong E winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low pressure with seas of 10-12 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a mid- to upper-level trough will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms through tonight between 63W and the SE Bahamas. A cold front extending from 31N68W to 27N73W to the Straits of Florida will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida by this afternoon, where it will stall before retreating slightly NW Thu and dissipating Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will develop NW of the front this morning and persist through at least Thu night. Strong winds will pulse again in the Straits of Florida Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish over the weekend. $$ Hagen