000 AXNT20 KNHC 192318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1034 mb centered just north of the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa supports gale force winds, with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These conditions are forecast to continue to at least 21/00 UTC. An altimeter pass shows seas of 11-12 ft within the area of gales. Seas are expected to be very rough, potentially building to 12-15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 21W and 28W, and S of 02N between 35W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 23N90W to 25N94W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted behind the front in the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are seen over the NW Gulf based on scatterometer data. Fresh NE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Based on buoy data, seas are ranging from 7-9 ft in the northeast Gulf, 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Visible satellite imagery indicate that a narrow line of clouds is associated with the front. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will sink a bit further S this evening, then stall just N of the Yucatan Channel and over the Florida Straits later tonight. Fresh NE winds N of the front will persist through tonight, before shifting to E and SE Wed. Afterward, a strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic States will cause fresh to strong easterly winds over the E and S central Gulf Wed evening through early Thu morning, including the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE return flow should dominate the entire Gulf by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection has flared-up over eastern Cuba and Jamaica ahead of a broad mid to upper-level trough that reaches southward from the western Atlantic to the NW Caribbean. Isolated thunderstorms are over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over Hispaniola under a diffluent pattern aloft. High clouds associated with strong upper-level winds, ahead of the above mentioned upper-level trough, are also noted across the basin. Abundant moisture will persist over eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, supporting locally heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding. Based on the most recent scatterometer data, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 18N. Similar wind speeds are observed across the central Caribbean mainly N of 13N. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the regional waters of the Leeward Islands while gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the east and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight and stall just N of the basin through Thu evening, bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean tonight through the remainder of the week. Pulses of strong winds are possible across waters S of Cuba on Wed and Thu nights. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from 31N72W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. A narrow line of clouds is associated with the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted behind the cold front with seas of 3-6 ft. A broad surface trough is ahead of the front and extends from 31N70W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This trough is the reflection of a mid to upper-level trough that crosses the western Atlantic into the NW Caribbean. Upper diffluence ahead of the trough axis is enhancing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the waters between 65W and 75W, including eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong winds N of 25N and ahead of the trough to about 66W. A weak cyclonic circulation is noted along the trough axis near 23.5N74W. Farther E, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is located near 26N34W. A well defined swirl of mainly low clouds is related to the low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure located just N of the Azores near 41N26W. Seas are 11-13 ft between this high pressure and aforementioned low pressure. For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough nearby will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity through Wed from the SE Bahamas and northward to 31N. The above mentioned cold front will reach from 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits tonight, then stall from Bermuda across the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits. This front will slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front through Thu evening. $$ GR