000 AXNT20 KNHC 181740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall from Bahamas southward to the Greater Antilles: A mid to upper-level trough stretching from the Bahamas to the central Caribbean Sea is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near portions of the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica and adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by favorable upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for these locations through Tue. There is potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Looking further ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence over this area during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern could persist through Thu. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 06W-17W. Isolated weak convection is noted from 02S-06N between 27W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front has entered the NW Gulf this morning bringing increasing moderate northerly winds. A pre-frontal trough is generating scattered thunderstorms in the NE Gulf. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of high pressure with light to gentle winds. Seas are currently slight across the basin, with conditions building in the north. For the forecast, strong northerly winds will develop in the NE Gulf by tonight as the front pushes southward across the eastern basin. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue as the front stalls across the southern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse tonight along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters associated with a diurnal trough. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may reduce visibility across portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, south of 25N and west of 93W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast late Wed into Fri near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits and southeast Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. A broad surface trough extends across western Cuba. This feature is supported by a mid-level low causing scattered thunderstorms in the central Caribbean. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. A weak low pressure center has migrated north into the Colombian Basin, disrupting the easterly flow in the area. Winds are light to gentle in the western half of the basin with 3-5 ft seas in the southwestern portion and 2-4 ft seas in the northwestern portion. For the forecast, A mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of the north-central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades over the eastern Caribbean will continue through Tue. As the trough moves eastward, winds will diminish to moderate by Tue night. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Tue night and stall there through Wed, bringing moderate to fresh NE winds across the NW basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A north-south line of thunderstorms extends roughly 120 nm off northeast Florida behind a warm front. Scattered thunderstorms persist near and east of the Bahamas due to a surface trough. A high pressure ridge extends along 30N, with moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas south of 29N and east of the Bahamas. In the eastern Atlantic a 1037 mb high pressure centered north of the Azores is causing a tight pressure gradient and generating strong to near force winds and rough seas north of 25N. Winds decrease to gentle with moderate seas south of 23N. In the far eastern Atlantic, near gale force N winds are expected to develop near the coast of Morocco Tuesday and persist through Wednesday, with seas building to 15 ft. Please see the latest forecast from Meteo- France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will begin moving eastward and extend from 31N75W through the central Bahamas to Jamaica. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop E of this trough this afternoon through Tue. The area of strong winds will expand northward to 31N as the trough drifts eastward. A mid to upper-level trough is expected to enhance thunderstorm activity through mid-week east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight will reach from 31N74W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed morning. The front will stall by Wed and slowly weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front Tue night through Thu morning. $$ Flynn