000 AXNT20 KNHC 170551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy Rainfall in SE Bahamas and Hispaniola: A moist ESE trade-wind flow coupled with a pronounced mid- level low near 22N74W is triggering strong convection over the SE Bahamas. This convection is expected to gradually spread southeastward over Hispaniola this afternoon and evening. Enhanced by favorable upper-level winds, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are anticipated for the SE Bahamas through this afternoon, and over Hispaniola this evening through Tue. Looking further ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the mid-level low during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern might persist through midweek. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N30W to 00S48W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up S of the monsoon trough over Liberia and Ivory Coast. Scattered moderate convection is also from 01S to 05N between 15W and 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, an outflow boundary has emerged south of the Florida panhandle. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are offshore SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extends from central Florida to the central Gulf supporting light to gentle winds along with 1 to 3 ft seas over the NE and E Gulf. Moderate return flow and 3 to 5 ft seas are over the remainder of the basin, except for fresh E winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest visible and fire weather data from GOES-16 shows several weak agricultural fires are underway across southern Mexico. While no smoke is evident over the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche at this time, it is possible that smoke may drift over the waters as the fires continue to burn. For the forecast, the modest surface ridge will support gentle to moderate SE winds across the western Gulf through late Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf early Mon, then stall across the southern Gulf late Tue through Wed. Fresh northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may continue to reduce visibility across portions of the Mexican offshore waters W of 95W and off southern Texas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aided by a pronounced mid-level low near 22N75W, convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across central and E Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Refer to the Special Features section for more information on potential heavy rain across Hispaniola. Satellite scatterometer imagery observed fresh to locally strong trades over much of the eastern and central Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between high pressure located well E of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia. Recent buoy and altimeter data reveal 5 to 7 ft seas in this region. West of 75W, scatterometer found mainly gentle to moderate trades, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Winds may increase to fresh within the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean through this morning. A broad trough is expected to develop from coastal Colombia to E Cuba along 76W Mon through Tue night. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across the north-central and NE Caribbean tonight through Mon evening. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel by early Wed and stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula along 20N Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of convergent moist trade winds and a pronounced mid-level low between E Cuba and the SE Bahamas is producing scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over the SE Bahamas and nearby waters. Refer to the Special Features section for more information on potential heavy rain across the SE Bahamas. High pressure ridging extends across the western Atlantic to the northern Bahamas and to central Florida. Gentle to moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 25N between 50 and 70W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are to the west of 70W. A cold front curves westward from a low SW of the Azores across 31N31W through 26N40W to 30N50W. Satellite scatterometer and altimetry data reveal moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft present north of the cold front. Elsewhere, Moderate to fresh E winds are observed in scatterometer data south of 25N and west of 30W to the Lesser Antilles and the SE Bahamas. Mainly fresh winds are noted north of the Caribbean Islands where seas are up to 10 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted east of 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds south of 25N and E of the Bahamas will diminish slightly today as high pressure E of Bermuda shifts eastward. Meanwhile, a trough will form over the Bahamas along 76W-77W on Mon. Low pressure will form along this trough Mon night east of the NW Bahamas, then shift northward Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast by Mon night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front. $$ Mora