367 AXNT20 KNHC 151652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra-Leone near 09N13W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N east of 15W. Scattered moderate convection is also present south of the ITCZ west of 35W to the northeast Brazilian coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from Mexico Beach, Florida to southeast Louisiana. A surface trough is analyzed in the southwest Gulf from 23N93W to 19N94W. No significant convection is observed with either of the aforementioned features. Satellite imagery reveals a large area of light to moderate density smoke covering the mainly the western half of the Gulf, to the Bay of Campeche, and portions of the Central Gulf. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibility, mainly in the W Gulf. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient in place across the region is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the far eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the above mentioned stationary front will lift north and inland today. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin late today through Sun. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the northern Gulf through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds persist off the coast of Colombia, between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South America. Seas are reaching 8 to 11 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras this evening through tonight. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 74W-75W from the N coast of Colombia across the SE Bahamas early Mon through late Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure is centered southeast of Bermuda near 30N61W. To the west of the high pressure center, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed between 74W and a surface trough that is analyzed from 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Over the central Atlantic, a weak cold front is analyzed from 31N34W. East of the front, a trough extends from 30N31W to 26N37W, where it devolves into a shearline to 21N70W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the trough north of 27N to 25W and along the shearline from 19N to 21N between 56W and 70W. Satellite derived winds reveal fresh NE to E winds between the shearline and 23N, west of 52W. Seas to 8 ft are also within this area. NW swell to 8 to 10 ft is evident in this morning's altimeter pass north of 27N between 35W and 50W. Elsewhere west of 35W, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N on Sat. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft will persist south of 24N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast this morning and become stationary off northeast Florida tonight. An associated upper level trough across the NW waters this morning will move E- SE through the weekend and support very active weather across the Bahamas ahead of it. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 74W early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop along the trough near 26N73W Mon night, and shift N-NE and exit the region Tue evening. $$ Nepaul