000
AXNT20 KNHC 150901
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Guinea near 10N15W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N19W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 25W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Pensacola, Florida to South 
Texas. No significant convection is along this boundary. Gentle 
to moderate easterly flow dominates most of the basin, except 
for moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin and within the 
Florida Straits. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most of the Gulf, 
except in the NW Gulf, seas are up to 8 ft.  Otherwise, patchy 
areas of haze are possible over 
portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf with some 
reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural 
fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.

For the forecast, the stationary front will start to lift north 
as a warm front through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SE return 
flow will dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sun. A 
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and stall over the 
northern Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Except for the greater Antilles, most of the basin is relatively 
quiet in terms of precipitation. A 1025 mb high pressure center 
SE of Bermuda continues to tighten the pressure gradient in the 
Caribbean, thus resulting in strong winds offshore Honduras, 
Belize, and NW Colombia. A recent scatterometer pass observed 
fresh trade winds elsewhere in the central and eastern 
Caribbean. Mainly moderate E winds are elsewhere west of 80W. 
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft 
elsewhere in the eastern half of the Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft in 
the NW Caribbean.

Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this 
weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area. 
Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely 
over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will 
continue to support fresh to strong trades over the 
south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to 
southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at 
night through Fri. A north to south aligned trough is forecast 
to develop along 75W from N coast of Colombia across the SE 
Bahamas Mon through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered SE of Bermuda. Broad surface 
ridging extends SW from the high pressure to central Florida. 
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are north of 25N and west of 
70W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds 
are south of 25N and west of 40W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. 

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front continues to drift south 
extending from 31N38W to 28N47W. Light to gentle winds surround 
the front, however, seas behind the boundary are 10 to 12 ft. A 
shearline is south of the cold front, extending along 20N 
between 35W and 45W with moderate to fresh E winds north of the 
boundary. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere in the 
Atlantic between 20W and 40W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Fresh NW 
winds are noted north of 20N and east of 20W surrounding the 
Canary Islands. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly 
stationary along 20N through Fri. A band of fresh to strong NE 
to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range will persist across 
the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high 
pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold 
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and 
become stationary there 
Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the 
Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 75W Mon. 
Low pressure develops along the trough near 26N75W Mon night, 
shifts NNE, and exits the region Tue. 

$$
Mora