000 AXNT20 KNHC 142357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located near the Madeira Islands and a 1003 mb low pressure over northern Algeria supports gale force winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Gales are forecast to persist until 15/0000 UTC, according to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France. The wave heights are peaking around 12 ft in association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N E of 13W. Similar convection is found from 01S-04N between 24W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W SW to 27N91W to 26N95W where it transitions to a stationary front to the southern tip of Texas. Middle-level diffluence continue to support scattered showers ahead of the front E of 88W. Thunderstorms associated with a former squall line have gradually decayed. In terms of winds, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the far NW Gulf with seas to 7 ft while winds of similar speed are off the Yucatan peninsula, except for locally strong winds and seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 3 ft are elsewhere. Otherwise, patchy areas of haze are possible over portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico. For the forecast, the cold front will shift slightly southward this evening, then stall and weaken tonight, then will lift northward as a warm front on Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sun. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon and extend across the N half of the Gulf Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Except for the greater Antilles, most of the basin is relatively quiet in terms of precipitation. Strong high pressure centered SE of Bermuda continue to tighten the pressure gradient in the Caribbean, thus resulting in strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore NW Colombia and fresh trade winds elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds also prevails in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E winds are elsewhere west of 80W. Seas are 7-9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 5-7 ft elsewhere in the eastern half of the Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area. Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Morocco. Please read the Special Features section for more details. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 29N62W. Broad surface ridging extends SW from the high pressure across Florida and into the E Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail north of 25N and west of 55W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are N of 27N and E of 70W. South of 25N and W of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds are noted with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N40W to 29N55W. A shear line is ahead of this front extending from the tail of a stationary front from 24N43W to 20N55W to 20N66W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 90 nmi ahead of the shear line to 55W. Otheriwse, mainly fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics W of 38W. For the forecast west of 55W, a shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through Fri night. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and become stationary there Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 75W Mon before low pres develops along the trough near 29N74W Mon night and shifts NNE and exits the region Tue. For the forecast east of 55W, low pressure is likely to increase winds and seas Sun through early next week, north of 25N and east of 40W. $$ Ramos