000 AXNT20 KNHC 141647 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located near the Madeira Islands and a 1005 mb low pressure over northern Algeria supports gale force winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. A recent scatterometer pass from 14/1000 UTC confirmed the presence of N winds up to 35 kt near 31N 10.5W, off the coast of Morocco. Gales are forecast to persist until 15/0000 UTC, according to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France. The wave heights are peaking around 12 ft in association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N- 06N between 06W-14W. Similar convection is found from 00N-03N between 29W-39W. Scattered showers are seen from 00N-04N between 44W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from Pascagoula, MS to Boothville, LA to 27N93W to North Padre Island, Texas. Enhanced upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is enhancing strong thunderstorms along a pre-frontal squall line, oriented from 28N87W to 27N90W as of 14/1500 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere north of 26N and east of 91W. Strong NE winds are behind the front in the Gulf of Mexico. Recent data from NOAA buoy 42019 near 27.9N 95.3W indicates 23 kt winds and wave heights of 9.5 ft as of 14/1500 UTC. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are likely occurring over the NW Gulf behind the front. A surface trough over the southwest Gulf extends from 25N84W to 21N96W to 18N95.5W. To the east of the trough, moderate SE winds prevail over the south-central and southeastern Gulf. To the west of the trough, gentle NE to E winds prevail over the far SW Gulf. Seas are averaging 4 to 6 ft over the remainder of the basin, to the south and east of the cold front. Patchy areas of haze are possible over portions of the southwestern and west-central Gulf with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico. For the forecast, the cold front over the NW Gulf will shift slightly southward today, then stall and weaken tonight. The western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. The strong NE winds NW of the front this morning will diminish to fresh this afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will then dominate most of the basin late Fri through Sat, then become E to SE Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The earlier Gale Warning offshore Colombia has expired. Most of the basin is relatively quiet in terms of precipitation. However, isolated showers are noted near the Windward Passage, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are also possible in the far SW Caribbean off Panama and Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT data from 14/1415 UTC shows strong NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean, locally near-gale off the coast of Colombia. Strong winds are also likely in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mainly fresh trades prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E winds are elsewhere west of 80W. Seas are likely 8-11 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 6-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, a robust mid-level trough is likely to form this weekend over the southeastern Bahamas and Windward Passage area. Periods of enhanced rainfall and strong thunderstorms are likely over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos Islands from this weekend through much of next week. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri night. N-NE swell will continue to dominate seas E of 65W today. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 74W and extend across the far SE Bahamas Mon through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Morocco. Please read the Special Features section for more details. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N61W. Broad surface ridging extends W from the high pressure to northern Florida. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail north of 25N and west of 70W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are farther east, closer to the high pressure center. Farther south, recent ASCAT data show fresh trade winds. Seas are 8-10 ft east of the southeast Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico, within the fresh trade wind area. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted over portions of the central and southeast Bahamas. A stationary front extends from 31N31W to 25N43W. A shear line continues from 25N43W to 21N53W to 20N67W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near the shear line between 56W-63W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere near the shear line and stationary front. ASCAT shows fresh to strong NE to E trade winds within 120 nm N of the shear line between 57W-64W. Winds are gentle on both sides of the stationary front. A cold front enters the area near 31N45W and extends to 30N54W to 31N57W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the front. ASCAT shows fresh winds on both sides of the front. A large extratropical storm centered well north of the area near 47N37W is sending NW swell southward, into the area. As a result, seas of 8-11 ft are occurring north of 29N between 30W-55W. Seas of 8-9 ft also extend along the length of the stationary front and shear line. Farther south, fresh to locally strong trades and 8-10 ft seas are noted from 04N-12N between 40W-60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through Fri night. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and become stationary there Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward along 73W Mon before low pres develops along the trough near 28N70W Mon night and shifts NNE. For the forecast east of 55W, low pressure is likely to increase winds and seas Sun through early next week, north of 25N and east of 40W. $$ Hagen