000 AXNT20 KNHC 141016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support strong to minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through early this morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the early morning hours. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist through Fri night. Winds will further diminish to moderate to fresh speeds during the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast at website https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details. Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands and lower pressures over northern Africa supports gale force winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Gales are forecast to persist until 15/0000 UTC, according to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France. The wave heights are peaking around 13 ft in association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N- 05N between 06W-10W. Scattered moderate convection can be found near 06N13W, and S of 03N between 28W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is entering the far NW Gulf. A band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front currently affecting between the Florida panhandle and SE Louisiana, including the coastal waters. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas could be expected with the strongest storms. Mainly moderate to fresh SE winds are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern Gulf, with embedded area of fresh to strong SE winds, particularly in the waters offshore northern Yucatan and the Straits of Florida. Seas are 5-7 ft N of 22N and W of 87W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except across the coastal waters of W Florida and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Patchy to areas of haze are possible in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will extend across the northern Gulf today, then stall. The western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. Strong to near gale force NE winds will briefly follow the front this morning, building seas to 8 or 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia through early this morning. Please read the Special Features section for more details. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Strong to minimal gale force winds are noted near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE to E are observed in the Windward passage, mainly N of 19N. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. Sea heights of 8 to 12 ft are near the coast of Colombia, with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the remainder of the central Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the eastern Caribbean, with seas of 3 to 5 ft elsewhere across the basin. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is noted across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. NE winds over the SW Caribbean are transporting these patches of low level moisture into western Panama and Costa Rica where light rain has been reported. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just S of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombian will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri night. N-NE swell will dominated seas E of 65W through Thu. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 75W and extend across the far SE Bahamas Mon through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect in the marine zone of Agadir. Please read the Special Features section for more details. A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N30W and continues southwestward to 21N50W, where it transitions into a shearline that extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A broken band of mainly low clouds, with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms is associated with the shearline. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds on the northern side of the shearline, and moderate to fresh E winds on the south side of it. Seas are 9 to 10 ft within these winds based on buoys 41043 and 41044. Seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell are behind the stationary front. High pressure of 1026 mb located just S of Bermuda follows the frontal boundary, and extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and Florida. Abundant cold air stratocumulus clouds are still noted W of the front and N of the shearline to about 70W. E of the front, a 1023 mb high pressure is situated midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands, and dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Seas continue to subside E of 35W, and now mainly seas of 6-8 ft prevail across most of that area. Across the tropical Atlantic, mainly moderate to fresh trades are seen based on scatterometer data, with seas generally in the 6-8 ft range. An area of 8 ft seas is seen between the W of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through Fri night. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and become stationary there Fri night. $$ GR