000 AXNT20 KNHC 140515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and low pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support pulsing gale-force through early this morning offshore of northern Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a portion of the area showing strong to near gale-force trades. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the early morning hours. Winds will decrease to fresh to strong by this afternoon and persist through Sat, before diminishing more substantially on Sun and Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast at website https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for more details. Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge NW of the Canary Islands and lower pressures over northern Africa result in strong to gale-force N winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir. The gale-force winds will persist until 15/0000 UTC, according to Meteo- France. The wave heights are peaking around 13 ft in association with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 04S30W to 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 04N and E of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge near Bermuda extends westward into the SE United States and the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from a strong storm system near the Great Lakes to southern Texas. This is causing severe weather over the Mississippi Valley. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms has entered the NW Gulf, extending from SW Louisiana to SE Texas. However, stronger storms are located over southern Louisiana to central Alabama and this activity is moving quickly to the southeast and will be reaching the northern Gulf coast waters during the overnight hours. Mariners can expect gusty winds to near gale-force, frequent lightning and rough seas in the immediate area of the strongest storms. In the rest of the gulf, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the gulf. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are found in the waters offshore northern Yucatan and the Florida Straits, while moderate or weaker winds are prevalent elsewhere. Seas of 5-8 ft dominate most of the gulf, except for seas of 2-5 ft in the NE Gulf and E Bay of Campeche. Patchy to areas of haze are possible in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche with some reduction to visibilities, due to ongoing seasonal agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico. For the forecast, a weak cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight, and extend over the northern Gulf on Thu, then stall. The western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front on Fri, while its remainder remains stationary. Fresh to strong NE winds will briefly follow the front tonight into Thu morning. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will dominate most of the basin through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect offshore of northern Colombia. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient associated with the subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressures over northern South America allow for fresh to strong trades to dominate the basin. The strongest winds are noted offshore southern Hispaniola, between northern Haiti and eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail in the region described. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are found between Jamaica and western Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure just W of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombian will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force just offshore Colombia tonight. Fresh east to southeast winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Thu night. N-NE swell will dominated seas E of 65W through Thu. A N to S aligned trough is forecast to develop along 75W and extend across the far SE Bahamas Mon through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect in the NE tropical Atlantic Ocean. High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean islands and Florida. A weakening stationary front cuts through the subtropical ridges, entering the basin near 31N31W and continues southwestward to 22N50W, where it transitions into a shear line that travels westward to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong anticyclonic winds S of 26N and W of 45W, north of the mentioned surface features. The strongest winds are occurring S of 23N and between 70W and 75W, affecting the waters surrounding the Bahamas to northern Hispaniola and NE Cuba, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas greater than 8 ft are found north of the frontal boundary and shear line, primarily E of 53W and within 60 nm of these features between 53W and 71W. Elsewhere in the western tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and 4-8 ft seas prevail. Moderate to fresh trades are present in the deep tropics, primarily S of 13N and W of 30W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. In the remainder of the basin, fairly tranquil weather conditions, moderate or weaker winds and 5-8 ft seas are predominant. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 28N35W to 22N50W where a shearline begins and continues to near 21N71W. High pressure located just W of Bermuda dominates the remainder of the forecast area. A belt of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist across the waters S of 23N through the upcoming weekend as high pressure remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and become stationary there Fri night. $$ DELGADO