000 AXNT20 KNHC 060416 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...Special Features... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Warning... A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Wednesday, accompanied by strong northerly winds and rough seas. As this system reaches the Bay of Campeche, winds will likely attain minimal gale-force offshore Veracruz, Mexico Thursday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build in behind the front, causing conditions to gradually improve Friday. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W to 02S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 15W and 17W, and from the equator to 04N between 26W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure in the Atlantic and a 998 mb low over central Mexico is generating moderate southerly flow and 4-6 ft seas across the majority of the basin. Oil platforms in the NW Gulf are reporting decreasing visibility tonight due to warm, moist southerly flow overrunning relatively cooler shelf water. The fog is currently patchy in the offshore zones and dense over the cooler coastal water. For the forecast, patchy fog will continue through Wed. Fresh to strong S winds will prevail mainly across the south-central Gulf until the next cold front exits Texas on Wed. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front forecast to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by Thu morning. Gales are likely to occur offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Thu afternoon and evening. This system will move SE and exit the basin by Fri morning. High pressure will move E across the northern Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between low pressure over Colombia and high pressure north of the area is maintaining moderate to fresh winds across the basin. Winds are mainly from the east, with southeasterlies in the NW Caribbean. Locally strong winds are found near the coasts of Colombia and Honduras. Altimeter and buoy data confirm seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range, with up to 8 ft likely in the areas of strong winds. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Wed. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri morning, then move through the NW Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A fast moving squall line has entered the Atlantic from the SE US, brining heavy thunderstorm activity off NE Florida. Southerly winds in the western subtropical Atlantic are strong north of 30N, building 5-7 ft seas. A weak cold front in the west-central Atlantic separates two high pressure centers with moderate winds behind and gentle winds ahead. In the central Atlantic, gentle easterly winds along 30N increase to moderate to fresh south of 22N. The pressure gradient is stronger in the eastern Atlantic with moderate to fresh NE winds prevailing. Altimeter data confirms seas are generally moderate throughout the western and central Atlantic, with rough conditions in the eastern third of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds offshore N Florida should generally continue through Thu, before a cold front moves offshore the SE U.S. This front will reach from 31N72W through the central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri. Strong NW winds will develop offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend. $$ Flynn