827 
AXNT20 KNHC 050406
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 
the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Isolated moderate convection is 
noted from 05S to 04N between 30W and 50W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak warm front in the NE Gulf extends from near Tampa Bay, FL 
to SE LA. Scattered convection is mainly weak along the boundary,
though there are some thunderstorms observed near the mouth of 
the Mississippi River. Winds are generally moderate from the SE
across the basin, with slight seas.

For the forecast, the warm front will drift N overnight and 
dissipate Tue along the NE Gulf coast. Fresh to strong S winds are
developing in the SW and central Gulf. These winds will prevail 
until a cold front exits Texas Wed afternoon. Strong northerly 
winds and building seas will follow the front. This cold front 
will move SE and exit the basin Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Moderate seas of 4-6 ft are observed in the eastern 
and central Caribbean. Slight seas of 2-4 ft are observed in the 
Northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the 
coast of Colombia through Tue. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf
of Honduras will continue into Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will 
prevail elsewhere. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel 
Fri. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N70W where it becomes
stationary and continues to south Florida. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted along the cold front. An isolated strong 
burst of convection is noted off the Florida coast. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, winds are generally gentle to moderate in 
the western Atlantic on either side of the front with slight to 
moderate seas. In the central Atlantic, a 1026 mb high pressure is
centered near 30N44W. Light winds surround the high, increasing 
to moderate to fresh south of 25N and east of 35W. Rough seas are 
observed in the eastern subtropical Atlantic with moderate 
conditions elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 65W, the front will become stationary by 
Tue morning, then gradually dissipate into Wed. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds will develop offshore northern Florida Tue 
afternoon, in advance of the next cold front, that will move 
offshore the SE U.S. by Thu night. Strong NW winds are possible 
offshore N Florida behind the front this weekend.

$$
FLYNN