000 AXNT20 KNHC 021007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure center is expected to form to the south of the Azores today. The low will move SE and reach a position near 34N23W by late tonight. Meteo- France expects near gale to gale force NW winds on the southwestern side of this low, which will impact the marine zones: Madeira, Irving, and Meteor, late tonight into early Sunday. Gales are possible mainly N of 29N between 26W and 31W. Winds will diminish and the potential for gales will end later Sun, as the low weakens. Seas of up to 20 ft can be expected where gales occur. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by Meteo- France, at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea-Sierra Leone border near 09N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N21W to the equator at 29W, then extends west along the equator to 35W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 06W and 18W, with scattered moderate convection ongoing within 210 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A previously stationary front is now lifting N as a warm front, and extends early this morning from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of this boundary, especially S of Louisiana. S winds in the south- central Gulf are moderate to fresh, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. N of the warm front, near the Louisiana coast, fresh E winds are gradually diminishing. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the south- central Gulf and NW Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. The warm front will stall again by tonight over the northern Gulf, then meander over the basin for the remainder of the weekend, before dissipating early next week. Southerly flow will return through the basin after the boundary dissipates. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and could reduce visibility today. Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service, by calling 305-229-4425. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid and upper level high pressure dominates the western and central Caribbean, with surface high pressure centered N of the region. The surface ridge is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the Sea, with areas of strong winds N of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. The high pressure is also keeping any significant convection from impacting the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the Caribbean, except for 7 to 9 ft seas within 180 nm of the Colombian coast between 74W and 78W. High pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into Sun. The fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish today. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade- wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on gale-force winds in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A previously stalled front is now lifting N of as a warm front, and stretches early this morning from 31N76W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on both sides of the front. Some fresh SW winds are noted ahead of the front N of 29N between 65W and 75W, otherwise areas N of 22N and W of 65W are experiencing mainly gentle winds. A cold front extends from 31N24W to 23N36W. Farther west, from 23N36W to 20N57W, the front is dissipating. Convection previously associated with this front has dissipated. N and W of the front, near 29N53W, a 1023 mb high pressure center is located. This is inducing mainly gentle anticyclonic wind field around it, with some fresh N winds limited to within 120 nm behind the front. areas N of 28N between 30W and 40W are experiencing fresh to strong mainly W winds, which are being enhancing by low pressure forming in the vicinity of the Azores. For areas S of 23N, moderate to fresh NE to E trades prevail. A surface trough is along 53W from 10N southward to French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of this trough. Seas across the basin are 4 to 7 ft, except 7 to 9 ft between 50W and the Lesser Antilles, and 8 to 12 ft in N of 24N between 25W and 45W. For the forecast W of 65W, the warm front will stall again by tonight, then drift S Sun into Mon as it is reinforced by a second front. Some strong winds may develop along this second front N of 29N between 65W and 75W Sun into Mon. Strong S winds may develop off the coast of N Florida by Tue night, in advance of the next cold front. $$ KONARIK