000 AXNT20 KNHC 012307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure system is expected to form south of the Azores on Sat. The low will move southeastward, reaching a position near 34N23W by 0600 UTC on Sun. Meteo-France expects near gale to gale force NW winds on the southwest side of this low pressure, which will impact the marine zones Irving and Meteor late Sat night into early Sun. Areas north of 29N, roughly between 26W and 31W could potentially experience gale force winds. Winds will diminish below gale force later Sun as the low weakens. Seas of 15-20 ft are likely within the area of near gale to gale winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone and reaches into the Atlantic near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02S32W to 01S36W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 240 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay, FL to 23N94W to 20N95W and inland into Mexico near 20N97W. A surface trough extends from Port Charlotte, FL to 25N87W. The latest satellite imagery and Doppler radar data from Florida show scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of the surface trough. Another area of scattered showers and isolated tstorms is noted over the central Gulf from 26N to 27.5N between 86.5W and 90.5W. Recent surface observations show fresh east winds across portions of the NW and west-central Gulf, mainly north of 24.5N and west of 90W. Fresh winds may also be occurring near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere. Seas as high as 7 ft have recently been observed by NOAA buoy 42002 near 26.1N 93.7W. This is in the same area where the fresh winds are occurring. Seas of 5-7 ft likely currently prevail over the NW Gulf with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except up to 6 ft in the Yucatan Channel, and 1-3 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may be restricting visibility over portions of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Mariners who encounter reduced visibility due to smoke are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service, by calling 305-229-4425. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift northward as a warm front through midday Sat, then linger across the Gulf through the remainder of the weekend. Although thunderstorms have recently weakened near the front, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to redevelop along the front during the day on Sat, affecting portions of the north- central and NE Gulf of Mexico. This line of storms will move SE over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the early evening hours. These thunderstorms are likely to produce scattered severe wind gusts and possibly small hail, along with frequent cloud-to- surface lightning strikes. The front will dissipate early next week with southerly return flow dominating the basin. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is moving across the southwest Gulf of Mexico and could reduce visibility through tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid and upper level ridging prevails over the western Caribbean, suppressing convection. Little in the way of any significant shower activity is noted over the eastern portion of the basin either, despite weak upper-level troughing in place. Scattered strong convection is noted mainly over land across portions of northern Colombia and Panama. Fresh trades prevail over most of the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail across most of the eastern and central basin, with 4-7 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. The fresh to strong winds south of Dominican Republic and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish by Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning over the eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, FL. A pre-frontal surface trough extends south of the front from 30N74W to Stuart, FL. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm either side of the surface trough, mainly north of 26.5N and west of 69.5W. Fresh SW winds are likely occurring to the east of the front, mainly north of 29N. Seas are 6-8 ft north of 28N, near and east of the front. Farther south, fresh trades are occurring north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with seas 6-7 ft. A 1026 mb surface high pressure is centered near 30N54W. The high pressure extends a broad surface ridge west-southwestward to 27N65W to the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are near the ridge axis, including over the central Bahamas. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail north of 25N between 58W-70W. A cold front extends from the Azores to 31N30W to 25N36W to 22N47W. A shear line continues from 22N47W to 21N59W to 22.5N72W. Isolated showers are possible along and within 120 nm east of the cold front. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the cold front. Seas are 8-13 ft across the area north of 23N between 32W-52W in NW swell. Fresh trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic from 09N-20N, west of 45W, with seas of 6-8 ft in the area. Strong N to NE winds are likely occurring within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh easterly winds south of 23N and west of 70W will prevail through Sat. Fresh southerly winds ahead of the cold front east of Florida will continue moving eastward to the north of 28N as the front progresses eastward through tonight. The front is forecast to become stationary Sat night through Sun along 29/30N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to precede the front through early Sat. Another round of stronger thunderstorms is likely to affect the waters east of Florida Sat evening through early Sun morning. Another cold front will push southward across the basin Sun into early next week. $$ Hagen