000 AXNT20 KNHC 310547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force S winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida early this morning through this evening, ahead of the cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Seas will build to 8-11 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent wind gusts to 40 kt are occurring north of 27N and east of 90W. Frequent wind gusts to 35 kt are occurring from 22N to 27N between 87W and 90W. Seas are currently 8-12 ft. By later this morning, winds are expected to diminish to strong speeds with seas marginally subsiding to 8-11 ft. Conditions across the northern Gulf will continue improving through the day. For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 02S30W to 01N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are north of the ITCZ to 08N between 25W and 50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is south of the ITCZ outside of the discussion area. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. At 31/0300 UTC, a trough extends south from New Orleans, Louisiana to 24N95W. According to NWS Radar Data, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring along the northernmost portions of the trough in coastal waters that include the Mississippi Delta and Chandeleur Sound. Also at 31/0300 UTC, a cold front is analyzed in the NW Gulf from the coast of Louisiana near 30N93W to the coast of Texas near 27N97W. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. East of 90W, fresh to strong S winds were detected by the latest scatterometer pass. A small area of near-gale force S winds were detected by the same pass near 26N85W. West of 90W, E winds of moderate speeds are noted. Seas are 8-10 ft north of 23N across the basin, increasing to 10-12 ft in the north-central Gulf north of 29N from 86W to 88W. South of 23N, seas are 5-8 ft, except in the E Bay of Campeche where seas are 3-5 ft. The last visible satellite images before sunset and more recent infrared imagery indicate several ongoing fires inland over South Texas and NE Mexico, with smoke blowing east over the west- central Gulf. Earlier images from National Data Buoy Center's buoy cameras and surface observations indicate that the smoke remains aloft at this time. If mariners encounter reduced visibilities due to smoke, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. For the forecast, strong southerly flow, with frequent gusts to gale force, are expected across much of the basin north of 22N, with these hazardous marine conditions gradually diminishing and improving from west to east through tonight. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure over Texas and northeastern Mexico supports these wind speeds. A cold front along the Texas coast will reach from the near Pensacola, Florida to 26N91W and to inland southern Texas early on Thu, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu evening. The front will become stationary from central Florida to the central Gulf near 27N90W, and to southern Texas by late on Fri and through Sat. Its western part will begin to lift back north as a warm front through Mon as southerly return flow begins to dominate the Gulf. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the front over the far northern waters tonight through early on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging associated with high pressure off the SE US Coast dominates the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over most of the basin, except in the south-central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras where the trades pulse to strong and near-gale force speeds. Seas are 5-7 ft across the Caribbean, peaking at 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to sustain fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through late Fri night, except diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by early on Fri. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish across much of the basin during the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N48W to 25N56W, where a dissipating stationary front then continues to Hispaniola. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are occurring north of the decaying boundary to 25N west of 65W according to the latest scatterometer data, including approaches to the Windward Passage, the Florida Straits, and Florida coastal waters. Seas are 5-8 ft north of the boundary. An area of 8-10 ft seas in NW swell is north of 28N between 49W and 66W. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, the Azores High supports moderate NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas. Recent scatterometer data indicates NE winds are fresh within 180 nm of the coast of Africa. For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N- 24N through Thu. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected off northeastern Florida beginning late tonight and through early Thu evening ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the waters offshore northeastern Florida early on Fri, then across the northern waters through Sat. The front is forecast to become stationary across the central waters during the weekend and gradually weaken into early next week. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to precede the front Thu and Thu night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast for the start of next week. $$ Mahoney