000 AXNT20 KNHC 301016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida this evening through Thu evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights of 8-11 ft are expected with these winds by Thu night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong southerly flow, with frequent gusts to gale force, are expected north of 22N and west of 87W today, with these hazardous marine conditions spreading into the NE Gulf late today. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico supports these wind speeds. Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft across the north-central Gulf waters this morning. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined primarily to the African Continent near Guinea-Bissau. The ITCZ extends from near 04N14W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the ITCZ axis W of 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data and buoy observations confirmed the presence of fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the Gulf waters W of 87W. Altimeter data and buoys observations also indicate seas of 9-12 ft over the NW Gulf. Due to the strong winds, only a few clouds are noted. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure system over the central US and NE Mexico is responsible for these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, a Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the Special Feature section for details. A cold front will approach the coast of Texas by this evening, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by Thu evening. Then, the front will become stationary while drifting northward through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure located north of the Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the lee of eastern Cuba, across the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Recent satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Recent altimeter data show seas of 3 to 5 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. Wave heights of 5-8 ft can be found over the NW Caribbean, and across the remainder of the central Caribbean. seas of 5-7 ft are E of the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front over Hispaniola is producing scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds. Patches of low-level clouds, with possible showers are noted over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Gulf of Honduras. Convection is flare-up over northern Colombia. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is moving westward producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of moisture are more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A nearly stationary front extends from 31N51W to Hispaniola near 20N70W. The front continues to produce abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms over Hispaniola. A broken band of low level clouds, with possible showers is associated with the remainder of the frontal boundary. A frontal trough is analyzed behind the front and extends from 31N60W to 30N73W. Winds are gentle to moderate between the front and trough. Seas of 8-11 ft in NW swell follow the front mainly N of 28N. E of the front, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered SW of the Azores near 35N33W and extends a ridge across the reminder of the east and central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades are noted per scatterometer data across the tropical Atlantic where seas are generally in the 8-9 ft range. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft. Patches of low level moisture, with possible showers are noted under the influence of the ridge. Transverse high clouds, associated with strong upper- level winds can be found from northern South America all the way NE to W Africa. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N-24N today through Thu. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected off NE Florida this evening through Thu evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will move across the N waters on Sat, then stall and begin to drift northward on Sun while weakening. $$ GR