000 AXNT20 KNHC 300141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Pressure gradient continues to increase between deepening pressure over Texas and a high near Florida. This will allow strong to near-gale force southerly winds with frequent gusts to gale force to develop across the W Gulf this evening. These conditions are expected to spread eastward across most of the Gulf on Wed. Seas at the W Gulf will reach 8 to 10 ft this evening, then 10 to 14 ft by Wed morning before shifting into the central Gulf Wed afternoon. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues confined primarily to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from near 03N15W to 01S30W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 03N between 14W and the NW Brazilian coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Feature section above on the Gale Warning A 1022 mb high pressure system is positioned near Spring Hill, Florida, near 28N83W. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail across the basin with only a few cirrus clouds visible on satellite imagery. The pressure gradient as the result of the subtropical ridge and intensifying storm over the central US is causing fresh to strong southerly winds over most of the western Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to occasionally fresh E-SE winds are found in the eastern Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are present W of 90W, with the highest seas occurring in the offshore Texas waters. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail S of 25N and E of 90W, and 1-2 ft elsewhere. Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly flow and rough seas will develop across the basin tonight. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected north of 22N and west of 87W, with building seas of up to 12 to 14 ft across the central and north-central Gulf on Wed and Wed evening. These hazardous marine conditions will be the result of a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico. A cold front will approach the coast of Texas by Wed evening, and extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. The front is forecast to stall and gradually dissipate into the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the coasts of Panama and Colombia due to diurnal heating and abundant moisture in the region. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is quiet. A scatterometer satellite pass earlier today showed fresh to strong trades across the central and western Caribbean, mainly W of 70W. The strongest winds found between the Cayman Islands and the Isle of Youth, Cuba, and in the offshore waters of NW Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft are present in the south-central Caribbean, with the highest wave heights occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the north-central and western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage by late Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N52W to Hispaniola and a few showers are noted ahead of the frontal boundary. A secondary, dissipating cold front is present from 31N60W to 27N69W, where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front to 27N75W. Winds behind the primary front to Florida are moderate to fresh with the strongest winds occurring S of 24N. Fresh S winds are also seen ahead of the front, W of 52W and N of 27W. Seas behind the front are 5-10 ft, with seas greater than 8 ft occurring N of 29N and between 57W and 71W. Elsewhere, a 1034 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic and north of our area, dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 6-8 ft are evident from Equator to 25N and E of 55W. Seas of 6-9 ft in northerly swell prevail N of 10N between the African coast and 36W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through Wed night. A weakening front from 28N65W to just north of the NW Bahamas will continue to weaken as it quickly pushes east of the area tonight. Fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast across the waters south of 23N-24N tonight. Winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night. $$ DELGADO