333 AXNT20 KNHC 291014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force. Strong southerly winds and rough seas will spread eastward across most of the Gulf region this evening through Wed. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected, with building seas of up to 12 or 13 ft across the north-central Gulf on Wed. These hazardous marine conditions will be the result of a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a deepening low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Most of the convective activity is S of the ITCZ axis, and S of the equator. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W dominates the basin. This system is providing a fairly stable airmass to suppress any shower activity. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas are over the eastern Gulf near the high pressure center. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds are present over the western half of the Gulf, except locally strong off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of 3-5 prevail, except as high as 6-7 ft off the NW Yucatan. Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities to 3-5 miles within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, a Gale Warning has been issued for frequent gusts to gale force. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A cold front will approach the coast of Texas by Wed evening, and extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, continues to support abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers across the area. A stationary front over Hispaniola is producing scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds. Convection is flare-up over northern Colombia and eastern Panama. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the lee of Cuba, and downwind to the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are just south of Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Recent altimeter data show seas of 4 to 6 ft between the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia and the southern coast of Haiti. Seas of 8-10 ft are over the south- central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia. Wave heights of 5-7 ft can be found over the NW Caribbean, and across the remainder of the central Caribbean, with 3-4 over the eastern part of the basin. For the forecast, the shear-line over the NW Caribbean will keep lingering showers over that area through at least tonight. High pressure north of the area will promote fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week, diminishing in the Lee of Cuba and across the Windward passage Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. Winds will diminish somewhat across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the high pressure weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A nearly stationary front extends from near 31N54W to the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. A broken band of low level clouds, with possible showers is associated with the frontal boundary. In the wake of the front, a 1022 mb high pressure is located over the central Bahamas and dominates the western Atlantic, the Bahamas and Florida. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong W-NW winds across the waters N of 29N between 65W and 74W where seas are in the 8-9 ft range. Light and variable winds are near the high pressure center while mainly moderate NE winds are noted near Hispaniola. Seas are 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas. An east-west oriented cold front is along 31N, between 70W and the coast of Georgia. This front is forecast to move quickly SE across the western Atlantic and reinforce the aforementioned stationary front on Wed. E of the front, a 1027 mb high pressure is centered SW of the Azores near 33N37W and dominates the east and central Atlantic. A surface trough crosses between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong N winds are seen between the western Canary Islands based on scatterometer data. Seas are 8-10 ft over most of the region N of 10N and E of 35W. For the forecast, the stationary front will continue to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as some gusty winds over Hispaniola and the adjacent waters likely through Wed night. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters S of 23N- 24N beginning today. Winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed through Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night. $$ GR